Mr Dave

I'm determined to keep this forum alive if it kills me.

I think Ford is poised to beat earnings (thanks, in part to GM's awful PR as of late...and thanks in a large part to building cars people finally want...plus an increased presence in Europe) and it looks undervalued in the low 16's to me.

I bought 10 contracts today @ .62 for the Nov22 expiration at $16/sh.
That's got earnings + a div built in.

Anyone else watching Ford? Thoughts?

trapper

In this aging bull market anything is going to be a crap shoot.

The economic situation in Europe, does not look good to me and China is also slow [We have a friend that lives in Beihai China (South of Hong Kong) who as a retail shop in a large mall who says there has been very little activity in any of the stores for months]. And the economy here in the US of A keeps sputtering along.

From a technical standpoint, the stock's 50 day moving average in in a downward trend; the 200 day moving average is flat; since mid-year more people have been selling the stock than buying [Acc/Dist chart]; The "MACD" chart is below zero but a "buy" signal is not yet indicated; and the "Williams %R" chart is in the "Oversold" range. A couple of other indicators show the stock in or approaching the "oversold" range but none I use have signaled a "buy" at this time.

That being said I have a position in Ford and am currently sitting on a 2% loss. The stocks pays about a 3% dividend with a payout ratio of only 27%. I'll hope for the best and hang on to it for a while longer.....if my loss gets to 8% I'll probably dump it.

Mr Dave

Wow -- incredible info, thanks for all of that!

hirev

I buy Ford now and then on a hunch....it goes from 12-18 odd bucks...when it is low enough i buy. Buying into a pullback takes guts and is a good move if it works.
I have some now and am ahead over the past couple of days, i don't keep it long as it only moves a tad, but with enought shares and buying around the x dividend date means some sort of profit in my opinion. its a good company.

Chris S

FYI, dividends are bad for long call holders, b/c the stock tends to fall in price by the amount of the dividend (ex. other factors, all else being equal) after the ex-dividend date, and call holders aren't compensated for it. Looks like you're experiencing the less than fun aspect of options - losses as well as gains in the underlying security tend to be amplified.

Mr Dave

Yeah, I lost on this one for sure.
And I appreciate the info re: Div's and option length.

I didn't see the huge, expensive recall coming.
Should've just invested in the company instead of gambling on the options.

hirev

i can say getting in and out of Ford is a good thing, I do it periodically, and sometimes I score a dividends, that's just my style of investing that works.