So I decided to make a best case scenario calculation. I'm not a statistician, but I know enough simple math to be dangerous.

Currently there are about 278,000,000 cars registered in the USA- this includes ICE and Electron engines. There are just over 2,000,000 electron vehicles in the USA currently (give or take).

Ok, last year, nearly 14,000,000 cars/trucks were sold in the USA. The number of electric vehicles sold is a pittance in comparison...but no matter, humour me and these numbers.

That means, that if EVERY SINGLE vehicle sold is an electron vehicle going forward, and current new vehicles sales remains stable...AAAAAND everyone can afford a new vehicle...its still going to take about 20 years to convert over the entire fleet in the USA.

And that's a best case scenario where everyone wants electrons to power their transportation, and everyone has lots of money, and there is enough resources to build them, and everyone actually wants a new car. Ok, maybe someone smarter than me can poke holes in my theory.

darcy

 

Answering that would be about like all of us in a back alley with a pair of dice, each with a stack of 1’s.

My daily has been electrons for 10 years. My next daily will be one as well. But I would never consider one for sporting application. It’s going to be quite a while for this switch. Most cars are world cars now, sold in multiple to many countries. And Europe is pushing emissions like crazy. It’s getting to the point where motorcycle manufacturers are starting to axe models there because of the emissions requirements. Even MotoGP is switching to synthetic fuel. Politics at play and the herd are easily programmed. I do expect everything to be a hybrid by the end of this decade. Get your 6MT’s while you still can, new. Just a few years left.

 

I say maybe turn of the next century, if ever. Might not ever happen if they don't improve their environmental report card.

 

I just see ePower as part of the mix and it will be a growing part
Instead of a full changeover, I would be looking for a tipping point, when more ePower is sold than ICE and Hybrid vehicle combined (cuz I won't be around when the full changeover is in place)
I am very happy with my current fleet, the electric Lucid, Hybrid NSX, V8 ICE LC500 Convertible and Q50S AWD Hybrid beater.
The next car I plan to buy/import is a JDM Toyota Origin I6 ICE once the early ones reach 25 years old.

 

Our Model Y is a happy complement to our families driving needs. Electric vehicles have their place and will continue to gain popularity as charging infrastructure and battery capacity/technology continue to improve. For a daily driver, they are very hard to beat nowadays.

 

I don't think the changeover will really get moving until the EVs are cheaper and/or better for most people, so probably quite a while. My wife has a Mach-E and it's wonderful for around town driving where you only have to charge it at home, just plug it in once a week or so and then next morning it's good to go. The price to charge has changed since we bought it. It started about $10 for 300miles and it's now up to about $15 for 300 miles so cheaper than gas (if you charge at home). It's quiet, drives really nice and gets up and goes pretty quick.

A couple of week ago I had to drive it to Florida for her. It went pretty well in that I never got stuck anywhere without enough electrons but it does take more time for a road trip and the cost for the trip was about the same as for gas for a similar sized suv. Instead of two 12 hour days it took me two 15 hour days for a roughly 1350 mile trip with a hotel stop in the middle. It was the first time we ever charged it anywhere but home, except for a test charge before I left home to make I knew how to do it and the app worked. I used all Electrify America chargers since they seemed to have the best options along (mostly) I-75. Most of the chargers were in Walmart parking lots. I had the list of addresses before I left and basically drove from one charger to the next. I started with 100% (305 miles range) charge since I left from home but after that only charged to 80% (240 miles range) since the charge slows down a lot from 80 to 100.

All the legs were between 120 to 180 miles. It was my first road trip with it so I was being very careful not to be too low when I got anywhere, just in case. I had read so many horror stories about broken chargers and I didn't want to get stuck anywhere. Most charges were about 30-40 minutes although a couple of times I let it charge more when I got a good charger that was running pretty fast. I took my Kindle so I had something to read while I waited. I also used every Walmart bathroom and had a few Subway meals too.

I only ran into 2 charging issues, One stop had 4 chargers but 2 were broken and the other 2 were running very slow so I was there about about 75 minutes. The other problem was one Walmart where a guy with a pickup pulling a car trailer with a Rivian on it parked blocking all 4 chargers so me and 3 other cars had to wait for 30minutes for him to come back and leave before we could plug in. I also kept my speed to about 72ish because I've read the range drops pretty quick if you're driving faster. Most locations had at least 1 charger out of 4 not working. You also had to be careful you pulled in the correct way because the cables are really heavy and not very long. There were at least a couple of times I had to move because I couldn't get plugged in the first way I parked. I also got a free charge once, no idea why, when I plugged in it started charging and the screen popped up it was a free one. I would love if gas stations did that too once in a while.

The entire trip was basically drive 2 to 2/12 hours then stop for 30-40 minutes to recharge.

 

Pending some major break throughs in battery charging, materials, and cost reduction, I don't think it'll ever happen, not without being forced (politics). Battery charging currently is reserved for those who have the ability to charge at home/work, and have the time to charge on longer stints as Rob M described, most people who have a challenge with one of these scenarios are better off with a hybrid. Materials are becoming increasingly difficult to source (let alone ethically...) so to Toyota's point, why make one EV when they could make several hybrids. And cost, which I suppose is the same thing as materials, since that drives the cost to produce the vehicles.

Regarding why governments wanting to phase out ICE, like what Tommy mentioned about motorcycles, I just got back from Japan, last trip was back in 2015, I was astonished by how much more people are there, and yet the air was cleaner. My buddy pointed out to me at the end of the trip if I noticed the lack of motorcycles/mopeds, and then it hit me, wow they were all gone, which explained the lack of the incessant horn honking, and also the air quality was notably better. Anyone who's been to Asia knows that distinct smell in the air right when you get off the plane from smog, which those older than me tell me was the same here in the states several decades ago.

I hate all the stupid smog laws we got here in CA, largely because alot of them are so illogical, but the net result is clear, the breathable air is indeed better. I was following an 80s Toyota the other day, and while not nearly as eye watering as following a 60s era car, I still noticed the emissions. My neighbor has a 2000 Ford Taurus, and I could walk outside and know if he drove by in the past few minutes. I tend to be on the climate change side vs global warming side if I had to choose a side, but I am for emissions controls because having clean breathable air is paramount.

Thing about electric though... I don't want to live anywhere near or downstream from a powerplant. I'm not sure what a total vehicle changeover would net in terms of increased power plants, but I do know that for my tax bracket it will likely affect me more than those who could afford to be Tesla early adopters. Like I live near Berkeley, so this conversation is constant about EVs, to which I simply pose the question of great, since the Berkeley collective wants to champion EV, why not be on the forefront and build the power plant of their choice in Berkeley. It's kinda hilarious really, the areas that have power plants tend to have lower than average home prices.

The bigger takeaway from OP's post is that, all of this aside, if today ICE production stopped, it'd still take 20 years to replace all the cars on the road at the current rate of turnover. While I know that number is extremely crude, the point is even under that posed extreme condition, it'd still take well past a decade to turnover all of the vehicles.

 

I am quoting this off the top of my head from foggy memory, but one of the articles I read was quoting one of the major auto CEOs, and he said if every company meets their goals of shifting to 100% electric by 20XX, there will still be 200 million ICE vehicles on the road in 2050 worldwide. The industry is rapidly falling behind those goals.

I'd like to get a second, new manual car. I'd be open to getting something like an Ocean for a third car, semi daily, utility, road-trip machine. I am still holding out for solid state batteries, just because of fire risk in a crash and energy density possibility. Not opposed to electrics so much as I am to watching the product get better, I think their will be a jump forward when solid state comes out, and they don't make anything super appealing to me at current price levels. Those price premiums will come down and product will continue to improve. No hurry here.

I also really like my current Alfa as a daily and have yet to hit 17,000 miles so I will probably have it for a while yet.

 

Yeah I remember reading something similar. For me, yeah I'm still contemplating what I'd like to get to tuck in the garage, but I'm open to the future that maybe one day I'd have an EV as a fun car as well. If I had to choose one I'd choose analog of course, but I don't need two. As you said, with solid state and other break throughs, could you imagine an EV hot hatch? Everytime I look at a Model 3 Dual Motor I think when will the economies of scale and progress make that drivetrain even more affordable, and then having some like Honda or VW put that drivetrain in a truly special chassis, that sounds like a ton of fun. Or even a Miata, I mean is anyone really going to miss the sound of a blaaaaaahhhhhh I4 when they have a Miata that can hit 60 in 4 seconds? What's even crazier to think about, the motors aren't the cost prohibiting factor either, and really working on them once you know them is actually more accessible for the DYI types.

 

Even if that was to happen through some miracle, they could never have enough electrical generation to power them all.

I believe some regions in the USA will still uphold individual freedoms and rights, and they won't force everyone to buy electric vehicles. This is unlike our dictatorship in Canada where they will force us to ditch ICE in a few more years if we don't find a political party with some common sense.

How about the VHS vs. BETA comparison, is the electric vehicle the BETA of future vehicles, and some other technology may take over like the VHS ? Who wants to be stuck with BETA ? I'm still holding out hope for hydrogen.