5k per week Tesla - would you want such a car?
07-03-2018, 01:08 PM
#11
They have 5000 welds on these vehicles and eliminated 300. That's 6% of the welds, which isn't THAT much. The engineering team has to sign off for any changes so they're taking a lot of liability if they disagree with the change. I wouldn't worry TOO much about it, but it does seem like a weird thing to remove, consider how much design work is done up-front to ensure the vehicles are structurally sound.
I don't care if it's 6% of the welds. If you took 6% of the welds off my mountain bike, it would not be rideable.
One question I have is will they now have to re-certify these cars for crash testing? I know a ton of resources are devoted to ensuring cars perform well in the various crash tests incl. the new IIHS small-offset test, which is quite tough. Will the cars perform the same now as before? If not, that's a problem. And if so, again I ask, why were 300 welds originally there that didn't affect the structure's performance?
07-03-2018, 01:58 PM
#12
Good point - either they didn't know their job then or they don't know their job now. Engineers like to build in "safety" so it's not unreasonable to think they could eliminate some welds without issue, but your comment about crash testing is valid as well. VERIFICATION of those welds being eliminated without issue would be done via destructive testing (ie, crash tests), torsion tests, bending tests, etc. It's not weird that they took them out - it's weird that they took them out so quickly that proper physical testing would probably be impossible.
07-04-2018, 05:31 AM
#14
A good friend of mine has an order for a Model 3, but just last week was able to spec his out, delivery is still 3-5 months out. After talking about it I went with him to our local Tesla showroom and did a test drive on a Model X P100D, while I realize the two vehicles are vastly different, I was left amazed by the Model X. The acceleration is astonishing, honestly nothing outside of a rollercoaster accelerates like this thing does in ludicrous mode. The autopilot is very cool too, I loved all the technology and the amazing touchscreen. Everything felt very refined, it all worked as expected and responsive, not gimmicky at all. With all that being said, at over $100k, it’s hard not to compare it to more traditional ICE powered vehicles and if given the choice I would buy something else at the same price point. If you have a Tesla showroom, I highly recommend you schedule a test drive. They are zero pressure, they didn’t even mention pricing or tried to sell me anything, just showed the features and answered questions. For any “car” guy it’s an awesome experience, it will definitely open your eyes to how amazing these electric cars are, and I’m really looking forward to seeing more offerings from traditional manufacturers.
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TrumpetTitan (07-09-2018)
07-04-2018, 07:52 AM
#15
I'm not worried about the tent. I get to thinking, if they needed the tents to hit 5k, what's taken them so long to hit these numbers? This is just bad press all around for a company who has positioned themselves as a premium *new* auto manufacturer.
There is no doubts that boosting production that quickly will force quality issues. I'm thinking it's less safety related and long term issues or paint quality type work.
I really like to see Tesla push the limits in the industry that has otherwise been more or less the same. I don't think they have a real business yet, and that's a poor guy telling a Billionaire he's not successful. $100k niche cars isn't a long term business. GM, VW and Toyota are going to crush Tesla as they pivot to electric cars. Right now he's the only game in town and his 'innovation' is limited to the software in their cars. Software is not a place I'd want to hang my hat on for long term success. His competitors have real competitive advantages such as manufacturing know how.
There is no doubts that boosting production that quickly will force quality issues. I'm thinking it's less safety related and long term issues or paint quality type work.
I really like to see Tesla push the limits in the industry that has otherwise been more or less the same. I don't think they have a real business yet, and that's a poor guy telling a Billionaire he's not successful. $100k niche cars isn't a long term business. GM, VW and Toyota are going to crush Tesla as they pivot to electric cars. Right now he's the only game in town and his 'innovation' is limited to the software in their cars. Software is not a place I'd want to hang my hat on for long term success. His competitors have real competitive advantages such as manufacturing know how.
07-04-2018, 09:33 AM
#16
Now the facts are starting to come out:
1. They didn't actually hit 5000 vehicles until hours after the deadline
2. They took workers from the Model S and Model X lines to boost the Model 3 line(s), which puts them in jeopardy of hitting the production goals for those vehicles
3. They eliminated the brake and roll test
4. They're mandating weekend shifts for all workers
5. They're forcing workers to stay until they hit their production goal for the day, not until their shift is over
So they're robbing Peter to pay Paul. It's unsustainable, which is pretty much what everyone is now realizing. He hit the target once but chances are, he won't hit it again for a while, without having to reduce output on the other vehicle production lines. He'll burn out his employees as well and quality will obviously suffer.
Stock is down 7% today.
1. They didn't actually hit 5000 vehicles until hours after the deadline
2. They took workers from the Model S and Model X lines to boost the Model 3 line(s), which puts them in jeopardy of hitting the production goals for those vehicles
3. They eliminated the brake and roll test
4. They're mandating weekend shifts for all workers
5. They're forcing workers to stay until they hit their production goal for the day, not until their shift is over
So they're robbing Peter to pay Paul. It's unsustainable, which is pretty much what everyone is now realizing. He hit the target once but chances are, he won't hit it again for a while, without having to reduce output on the other vehicle production lines. He'll burn out his employees as well and quality will obviously suffer.
Stock is down 7% today.
07-04-2018, 09:34 AM
#17
Well FWIW....I don't know how many people saw the article about that company that tears down vehicles and they did a model 3 and the owner of the business gave his thoughts. One of his points was that they had a lot of unneeded welds that added nothing to the strength of the structure. Just throwing it out there.
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TrumpetTitan (07-09-2018)
07-05-2018, 06:10 AM
#18
Ya the reality is that a more logical/sane person wouldn't dare buy one of these model 3's, but it's kind of like the iphone X buyers (not knocking them), the people buying the model 3 right now are the luxury market, and they can/will pay extra for something more "special" and "cool." Personally I have nothing wrong with that, and prefer others to be the guinea pigs/early adopters.
Either way as others have pointed out Tesla has a big hill to climb. Won't Tesla have a big competitive advantage in regard to batteries? Don't they own/run the gigafactory (I know Panasonic is a partner as well)?
I look forward to electric cars but I'm not sure if the one I buy in the future will be a Tesla. I've seen a couple Model S's and drove one and they're nice but ultimately I'd take a German luxury car over it. It's a pretty nice car, but quality wise it's pretty clearly not on the same level of other established mfrs. When my friend was showing me his Model S we experienced some little bugs which shouldn't happen on a 2 yr old car.
Either way as others have pointed out Tesla has a big hill to climb. Won't Tesla have a big competitive advantage in regard to batteries? Don't they own/run the gigafactory (I know Panasonic is a partner as well)?
I look forward to electric cars but I'm not sure if the one I buy in the future will be a Tesla. I've seen a couple Model S's and drove one and they're nice but ultimately I'd take a German luxury car over it. It's a pretty nice car, but quality wise it's pretty clearly not on the same level of other established mfrs. When my friend was showing me his Model S we experienced some little bugs which shouldn't happen on a 2 yr old car.
07-05-2018, 06:59 AM
#19
Tesla allowed order configs last week for all open reservations so they can get the deposits so it looks good on the financials for now even though delivery isn't for 3-5 months. This scheme guarantees another 2,500 per car immediately plus people cannot get the refund on the original 1k anymore one they order. I got my email but passed. The only way I buy this car is if the federal tax credit is still around when the base 35k model comes out. I'll get a few options and make it an appliance commuter for mid 30's after options and federal tax credit. This car is not worth 50-70K at all.
Tesla Opens Model 3 Orders to Reservation Holders - The Drive
Tesla Opens Model 3 Orders to Reservation Holders - The Drive
07-05-2018, 08:00 AM
#20
Tesla allowed order configs last week for all open reservations so they can get the deposits so it looks good on the financials for now even though delivery isn't for 3-5 months. This scheme guarantees another 2,500 per car immediately plus people cannot get the refund on the original 1k anymore one they order. I got my email but passed. The only way I buy this car is if the federal tax credit is still around when the base 35k model comes out. I'll get a few options and make it an appliance commuter for mid 30's after options and federal tax credit. This car is not worth 50-70K at all.
Tesla Opens Model 3 Orders to Reservation Holders - The Drive
Tesla Opens Model 3 Orders to Reservation Holders - The Drive
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TrumpetTitan (07-09-2018)
