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Mark Cuban also talking about holding cash right now due to uncertainty. VIX futures show volatility will continue. I think this rally is short-lived as well Bullwings. Could we see S&P below 2000? I think so later in the year if times are tough enough economically that some post-viral panic takes hold.
Since I have to make a prediction (I would like to believe it has already bottomed and we will all live happily ever after again), assuming we hit a new low at all:
December 2, 2020 S&P 1922. Right around the time everyone realizes it doesn't matter that it was black Friday, or that Christmas is coming, because everyone still owes back rent and still can't buy more imported shiny plastic junk from China.
New data on jobless claims.
Brings the total for the last 3 weeks to 16.8 million.
There's no way that this is already priced into the current market. As much as we all hope and wish it is, I simply cannot see that being a realistic scenario...
New data on jobless claims.
Brings the total for the last 3 weeks to 16.8 million.
There's no way that this is already priced into the current market. As much as we all hope and wish it is, I simply cannot see that being a realistic scenario...
It's like almost NOTHING HAPPENED(is happening) and everyone is clinging onto optimism - ANY GOOD NEWS. We are over the peak......is "GREAT NEWS"!!! There is a LONG road ahead I think.
You can't open the country up if you were only able to lessen the exponential increases by making most people STAY HOME! That's wave #2. Spanish Flu they said came in 3 waves and the 2nd was WORSE than the fist. I think that's what will happen. They will feel good and open things up in late or end of May and it's going to explode again!
We were supposed to be going back to work next week per initial projections.........that was about 30-45 days from when we went WOAH! Now we are looking at an ADDITIONAL 45-60 DAYS before they think about slowly opening things back up.
I need to ZIP IT AND JUST WATCH. Stick to my convictions and wait for this next leg lower to re-test or pierce the recent lows.
They drop 10% each year and 25% once every five or so years. People who can't tolerate the volatility shouldn't be in them.
I believe that you are looking at the markets with the same glasses that The Dude has on in your profile picture.
Sure, there's forward looking, and the if you look through the trouble that's currently in our face, you'll see that the trouble further out is much worse looking. This isn't simply just a "wave a 2.3 trillion dollar magic wand" at it problem. Even prior to the covid-19, the market had an inverted yield curve for at least 10+ months starting in 2019.
This has been a 10+ year bull market run since the Great Recession bottom in 2009. We haven't had a recovery run last this long in over 60+ years. This is uncharted territory.
The market also hasn't seen a pandemic of this scale since the 1918 Flu (which was much worse), and leaders, along with market traders have no clue how to respond to it. They're throwing money at bailing out the economy, and not at vaccine development, and wider spread diagnostic testing development and availability. Somehow, they think the problem is one of financial liquidity only. They're throwing money at symptoms of the problem, and not the root causes.
Finally, once this whole pandemic actually does pass - i.e. we have wide spread diagnostic testing and a vaccine that's accessible to the masses and not profiteered at something absurd that's only accessible to those with money and insurance (which 16.8 million people lost over the last 3 weeks when the lost their jobs) - many jobs will not be returning to the economy. Additionally, overall spending habits will have changed drastically.
To think that 1 month after hitting market highs that we've already hit the low of this down turn is naively optimistic. Maybe people are too scare to look at the new reality that's coming.
Taken from the article below (the whole thing is a good read), but this piece here is also telling:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...20/ar-BB12qUGm If history serves as a guide, a deep, yet brief recession would be rare. The average recession since World War II has lasted 11 months, according to LPL Financial, and the shortest ever was six months. The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months jumped to 100% in March, a Bloomberg Economics model shows. If one began last month, then an average recession would put the economy on track to climb out in February of 2021.
The market has a strong track record figuring out when a recession may end. Stocks bottomed an average of five months before downturns ended in 10 of the last 11 recessions, according to Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Corp. and a former adviser with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He currently sees the U.S. economy starting to recover in the third or fourth quarter, meaning “stocks could start to price in that recovery and begin a sustainable rally relatively soon -- assuming the market has not yet bottomed,” he said.
PE values for the S&P500 are still relatively high compared to what's is historically a health range. The VIX as well is still super high - 15-25 is what i would consider a "normal" healthy and stable market. I'm sure all the algorithms and high frequency trading doesn't help with near term volatility, but it's also possible that the added volatility that they do introduce helps bring the market to equilibrium faster (although I don't think it's going to do it in a single month). Tolerating volatility versus acting on it as a measured data point (the VIX) for which to factor into your decision making are slightly different things.
All of that said, if your optimism is correct, that would be best for the majority of the population on the planet.
Everyone is calling a bottom whether in the future or already passed, someone will get their lime light for "guessing" right. I can guarantee that Michael Burry (the big short - housing bubble) isn't going to correctly call this bottom - he had his one big gamble that he got right.
I'm following Buffet - long term record for winning the steady race, instead of sprinting.
I'm not optimistic, I'm realistic. History is a great guide. An environment with near-zero interest rates for a decade or longer will create a bigger bull market than the March 09 - Feb 2020 one. Cash will get nothing, bonds will lose close to half their value when rates finally edge up and real estate should look attractive.
The academic study opportunity here is fascinating - we've never had a recession with the American consumer in such a strong position. Everyone had a job, bad debt was super low, good debt was reasonable and household net worth was at record highs. The way this plays out in the real world will be riveting.
Michael Burry's latest call was to buy US small cap stocks, especially value ones. His theory is that indexing has ignored them and left them out for too long. They perform better than large cap stocks over long periods of time and are undervalued.
Nothing in your post sounded anything like Buffet ever said.
I should clarify that what i meant by "following" Warren Buffett - I'm not buying into this current market, yet. I bought in some at S&P 500 -20% and -35% from the high of 3393. I sold on Wed and Thursday of this past week. I'm about 35% cash now, and waiting for a revisit to S&P 500 below 2200, and again lower still. Buffett's actions over the last 2 months or so below.
Buffet on the sidelines raising cash. Currently Berkshire Hathaway has 128 billion cash on hand, and made very recent moves to raise even more cash, as shown above with airline stock sales, and this article selling 5 year notes. Buffet is not t in this market... https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/here...ket-2020-03-31
I'm not optimistic, I'm realistic. History is a great guide.
Agreed.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...20/ar-BB12qUGm If history serves as a guide, a deep, yet brief recession would be rare. The average recession since World War II has lasted 11 months, according to LPL Financial, and the shortest ever was six months. The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months jumped to 100% in March, a Bloomberg Economics model shows. If one began last month, then an average recession would put the economy on track to climb out in February of 2021
