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This is gonna be a bit harder to TACO. Iran is pissed (and rightfully so).
Trumptard can't just say, "Ok, war is over" and everything goes back to how it was 3weeks ago. A bunch of infrastructure in UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia etc. etc. got blown up and will need time to rebuild. The whole region has been destabilized for a long time to come.
The winner in all of this. China and Russia. Sanctions have been lifted on Russia to get their oil... China predicted that this was coming and stock piled oil.
Producer Price Index (PPI) through the roof - double economists' expectations. And, to top it off, that's only February data and doesn't reflect any of the recent inflationary pressures from war.
20% of crude oil passes through Straight of Hormuz
1/3rd of global fertilizer passes through the straight
85%+ of LNG supporting Asia passes through the straight (a lot of cheap mfg. goods come from Asia)
National price of unleaded fuel is up, but...
Diesel is the really big story regarding fuel prices - prices are up nationally by $1.60/gallon from January (everything relies on diesel for transportation)
Bonds are spiking. 10yr (and 30yr) T notes are starting to spike.
As far as technicals go for SP500, we've broken the 6700 support levels. Next medium term support is at 6500 and following that is a hard support at 6130.
I bought UVIX on Monday and Tuesday this week as the market tried to rally off of some unfounded hopes that the conflict would come to a magically quick end.
Took profits on the 16% spike following JPow's press conference when the market tanked. I've pretty much been trading the back and forth on this given all of the crazy volatility that this war has injected into the market.
All downhill from here. Analysis below is 1day lagged, but we just broke the short term floor of 6539 set in November.
Bond markets in complete disarray.
30yr T note is getting dangerously close to 5% interest rate...
Got assigned on some of my SPY PUTS. They're breaking the floor, so i'm effectively bought into the market more than I would like to be. Offset with massive jumps in UVIX. I have an average cost basis at $6.20ish.
Gold positions got hammered. I'm now down -8% on my GDX holdings.
Still got a decent amount of dry powder, but I'm definitely not escaping this massive downturn in the market. At best, i'm experiencing less loss than had i just held the entire time. I'm waiting for VIX - 35 to actively do an outright buy into the market - will likely be VTI, VTV, QQQ, and maybe VFH.
Last edited by Bullwings; Mar 20, 2026 at 01:26 PM.
Trump has been trying to TACO his way out of this "real" war like he's done with his trade-war... Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.
Market keeps trying to hold out for some sort of magical end to this conflict that the US started.
This is just the start for the stock market drop and oil/gas prices.
I hope we see $10/gallon diesel. Shove in all those rollin' coal clown's faces. This is what over 50% of the country voted for.
Is the drop in gold related to liquidity pinches? There was always going to be a "realistic" correction to gold given the run-up but I didn't expect it to happen *now*. If anything, I would have expected the climb to continue until things calmed down.
Is the drop in gold related to liquidity pinches? There was always going to be a "realistic" correction to gold given the run-up but I didn't expect it to happen *now*. If anything, I would have expected the climb to continue until things calmed down.
Gold is gonna come back. I bought a little bit on the correction. After today's pop, i'm only down about -3% on my gold positions.
UVIX went bonkers for me. I'm +35% on my UVIX positions from this week. I took some profits, will buy back in again on the next wishful hope of a quick end (one that isn't coming).
Iran has called Trump's bluff. They hold all of the cards now. This is our Russia-Ukraine moment. We (the idiots running the Department of "WAR" and the idiots that voted those idiots in) thought that we could steam roll Iran with airstrikes and cruise missiles. Nope.
Iran dug into the hills overlooking the straight of Hormuz. They have the high-ground and the fortifications to hold those positions and hold the straight, and they know it. Iran's counter negotiation proposal is Sovereignty over the Straight - hahahaha. We're so stupid.
We gave them reason the lay claim to it. Iran already got hit hard and experienced their pain, for them, it doesn't get worse - their leadership is now looking to inflict global pain. They're going to continue holding the straight and sticking it to the global economy, they have nothing to lose.
The only way to re-open and take back the straight is a ground invasion of troops into those hills.
Back to Gold. I'm going to buy more. Based on the latest report from the US Treasury, some economist have gone as far to declare that the US is effectively becoming insolvent.
On the books, we have $47.78T in debt and only $6.06T in assets... https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/po...151425143.html
Yup. Gold, eventually...
As far as technicals, all downhill - all short term support levels broken. This is 1-day lagged, so the picture is even worse after today's close at 6368.
