c2etalon

I don't post too often, but I love to read all you guys' posts. I noticed a lot of interest in Solar stocks and alt. energy. Won't these stocks drop if oil prices go down which I think we all know most likely will happen eventually?

Also, I'm anxious to see everyone's great stocks to buy, and see who does best for the short term (6 months). Let me know what you all think.

Aaron

lOOkatme

I recommend investing in oil stocks. I think this is a great bet long term. I don't recommend trading anything. But I honestly think OIL will be the best investment for the next 5-10 years its rediculous.

Oil production will decline.....and it will most likely hit the USA and China the hardest as we import the most oil.....exporting oil countries are having increased internal demand leading to lower exports....on top of declining production. Mexico which is a large exporter to america is predicted to export nothing in 5 years or less. Thats cutting 2-3 million barrels a day from USA....on top of the middle east exporting less....and internal declining production.

Solar stocks have high valuations....they might be good long term stocks to invest in.....but I see them as riskier to the oil investments. Some people think oil will pull back....but I don't know WHAT data they are looking at? Obviously there is going to be pullbacks.....but I don't think we will see $70/BBL again.....maybe not even $80 again. People were predicting $30/barrel on the last major pullback to the $50's where I loaded the truck up like a fat kid in a candy store.

The world thrives off oil....and it will take 10-20 yrs to get off it.....there is not going to be a smooth transition.....and in 20 yrs production is estimated to go to 15 million barrels a day.......The only thing between demand and supply is price....and people will need to be priced out of the market every single year going forward.....and at $3/gallon is not the price......and remember......the middle east/mexico/etc won't be priced out.....because they sell to their own people at much lower prices. They will simply stop exporting most of it....so the people fighting over it will be the united states/china/europe/etc. All the "rich" nations. I like oil as the investment. Its tough to say when to jump in.....maybe drop some money here...and hope for a pullback in the spring. Its really tough to say.

sahtt

You can't predict oil prices, it's too difficult to do it consistently short-term. Long term I agree with l00katme, the world needs oil and our entire system depends on it. Almost everything is made from petroleum in one form or another. Even if we all drive hybrid civics that won't change. Short term there could be a large drop in oil at any time, same with solar stocks. The difference is oil stocks will recover and solar stocks may not. Either way, make sure you aren't just picking a oil or a solar company because of its sector, pick it because that individual company has a great outlook you can understand, rationalize, and follow.

TR-S2K

Which solar energy companies below will perform best the next 6 months (+50% return or better) ?
TSL
STP
CSUN
JASO
ESLR
FSLR
ENER
SOLF
SPWR
HOKU
WFR
AKNS
ASTI
YGE
LDK
CSIQ
DSTI

I don't know, but I own some of these the last 7-8 months and some gave me more than 100% return. I still have these stocks in my portfolio: CSUN, ESLR, FSLR, TSL, JASO

If I am to add more solar stocks, I will buy these: HOKU, SPWR and YGE; But I have enough solar stocks for now, unless I am selling some of my holdings in solar stocks I am currently have, I will not add any more.

Oil price will only go up for many reasons, the most importance reason is demand is and will be higher than supply. Don't dream about oil price go much lower than $80/barrel in a near future or far away.

c2etalon

Thanks for the tickers, some of those look really good. Im taking that its a coin flip which ones perform better? Does anyone like the international solar companies better? They seem to be doing a bit better.

TR-S2K

In the long run, FSLR, STP, SPWR and JASO are safe bets but they may not go up as much and fast as smaller/newer companies like HOKU, AKNS, ASTI ...

Some of these companies went up more than 100% last year, January is the month mutual funds and institutional holders may sell part of their holdings to keep the profits they made last year. There may be some down turn for some, you should wait few days before jump in.

SD_S2K

you put your money into the stock market on coin flips?

yikes

It's called research

lOOkatme

I wouldn't invest in a single one (solar stocks)....the prices have outrun the fundamentals. I would suspect a pullback in them at some point.

If anything.....the prices on most oil companies are underpriced.....people do not understand how much higher oil prices can go. They can easily be in the $500-$1,000/barrel range....and I might still consider that cheap. We are looking at decline rates of over 6% on worldwide production of conventional (easy to refine) crude oil...The decline rates for the USA will probably be more on the lines of 10-30% for the USA since we import 70% of our oil....and that oil will be gone....just flat out gone for us. At what price will 50-60% of the united states not be able to afford gasoline? $20-50-100/gallon? at $20/gallon you are looking at $600-$1000/barrel oil.

It all depends on demand and supply.....and if supply remains flat....or starts declining.

I don't care about solar stocks......Wow...we can produce more electricty.....I don't see middle class and lower americans running out and buying 30-50K electric cars.....its just not going to happen in the next couple of years....the peak is here....and its going to get ugly. Its not an electricity crisis.....its a liquid fuels crisis.

Just look at how fast we are blowing through oil inventories...week after week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

AsianQing

SPWR is a good buy. Made some $$$ in the past and still owe some now. Good time to jump in too.

rouin

Well what oil companies are good to be investing in?