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Old 09-06-2018, 08:27 AM
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This is a pretty long and in depth article. I don't think I am so much convinced by it as much as I probably agreed with most of his points before I started reading. So if you are looking for a time waster, read and let me know what you think. I have been slowly pulling money out as the market increases in value, and yeah I have lost some opportunity to generate immediate returns, but the valuations and the whole debt problem make me pretty uneasy.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco.../#60e20a2b1b82

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Old 09-12-2018, 09:35 AM
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Good stuff. well not so good lol but good read.
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:33 AM
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So, ignoring this:
The purpose of this report is to warn society of the path that we are on and the risks that we are facing. I am not necessarily calling the market's top right here and right now. I am fully aware that this stock market bubble can continue inflating to even more extreme heights before it pops. I warn about bubbles as an activist, but I approach tactical investing in a slightly different manner (because shorting or selling too early leads to underperformance, etc.). As a professional investor, I believe in following the market's trend instead of fighting it - even if I'm skeptical of the underlying forces that are driving it. Of course, when that trend fundamentally changes, that's when I believe in shifting to an even more cautious and conservative stance for our clients and myself.

We at Clarity Financial LLC, a registered investment advisory firm, specialize in preserving and growing investor wealth in times like these. If you are concerned about your financial future, click here to ask me a question and find out more.
There's still a lot of usable notions in there. . . and there's a bit of bunk, IMHO.

QT/QE-unraveling - Yes, that will impact the market
Rising interest rates - Yes, that will impact the market
Flat/Inverted Yield Curves - it's based on a specious model - few banks borrow on a 2-year term. It's either overnight or 10 year; so compare the Fed Funds Rate vs. 10 year.
Equity markets being overpriced - is a lagging indicator, but it's still there.
Stock buybacks - specious. Stock buybacks redistribute funds, but just on second- and third- order means (s2000Junky is allowed to have a fit over this; it's understood)

The author neglected an increase in the PMI recently. So, while ignore stocks being overvalued, there is some sign that the fundamentals to the macroeconomic conditions are still going. . .
Bull markets end one of two ways: 1.) a whimper or, 2.) a wallop. Unless there are political or geo-political conditions that create a wallop, then a whimper will occur when everyone looks around, realizes that they're over-invested in FAANG,* and start looking for money outside of equity markets.
ALL THAT SAID, we are still on the back end of the longest/largest bull market, and even my advisor, while still bullish, is now getting bullish on investments that fare well in pre- and mid-downturn conditions. I expect an ETN hedging the S&P500 to be written on my behalf by April/May 2019.

*Beyond FAANG, there's a lot of money going into finding startups with street valuations already over $1B (think Uber). If someone realizes that the adoption rate on this stuff is not *exactly* as promised, someone may flinch in the private equity investment space. Related, a disproportionate amount of money is going to Silicon Valley, which ain't what she used to be.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:10 PM
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I still am wondering what the whole interest rate rise will do though. Home prices have really been going up, and now that 30yr mortgages are rising I don't know if that will bring home sales to a screeching halt. Cars went on a long run of record sales, now interest rates are not 2% on a 60 month, it only takes 3% or 4% loans to make the payment $30-50 more a month. We are now seeing auto sale slowing substantially. When homes and cars are the big part of a consumer driven economy, effects will be felt.

The debt of the emerging markets that are swimming upstream with rising rates and a stronger dollar versus their domestic currency is a big deal if it steamrolls. I am not sure we are heading for a 25% drop tomorrow. But if we don't have one in the next 18 months I guess I would be really surprised. Especially if we get 3-5 more quarter point rate hikes in that period.
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