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View Poll Results: What will the UK give the EU every year as a rule taker only
£20 billion or more
0
0%
£15 billion
2
20.00%
£10 billion
1
10.00%
£5 billion
1
10.00%
WGAF we will leave for nothing
6
60.00%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

The cost of our future with the EU

 
Old 09-08-2018, 01:25 AM
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Default The cost of our future with the EU

I am assuming Theresa May sticks to her guns and forces her way on the country - but with who knows what secret compromises still to come. Her so-called Chequers Plan was hatched in Downing Street by civil servants answerable only to the PM herself. All sensible debate (not that there ever was much) is out of the window and this is now a power/ego/political trip.

Control of our laws, borders, trade and money the lady says. Well we don't control our borders and with the human rights legislation cannot deport undesirables at present. It is unlikely the Home Office will ever be able to run the borders, police or immigration any more effectively than it does now, and will remain unfit for purpose. The ECJ will still be the appeal for the common EU rule book we agree to follow along with social and environmental rules. Establishing our own trade agreements will be hamstrung by all this if not impossible. Our government won't be able to intervene to save our industries or nationalise (or de-nationalise, presumably, if there are any left) them.

At present as a member the UK gets a special rebate. When we leave that will go, as will the money that the EU spends here. The gross UK contribution is estimated to be over £20billion by the time we leave at the end of the so-called Transition Period (which isn't any transition at all, nothing changes except we don't get to vote on the rules any more).

The real cost will of course be obscured as much as possible to save political face ...

but what do folks think is the price we will pay?
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Old 09-08-2018, 04:46 AM
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My vote it will come as no surprise "WGAF we will leave for nothing" I'm still hoping for a no deal hard brexit, that would really shake up the Europrats that have been twisting May et al round there collective little finger. There will be so much turmoil within the EU that I doubt it will have much negative effect on the UK, and allow us to get on using WTO rules to set up trade agreements. May I very much doubt will be around much after March, a new centre party is what's needed not the liberal do feck all's, talk was there's one on the horizon. The house of commons/lords need a real people led kick up the backside.

As for the special rebate, if we are paying them nothing in the first place we won't need a rebate. We can then go and fish for scallops in international waters, and reserve the right to blow any French vessels out of the sea who wander into British waters.

Last edited by richmc; 09-08-2018 at 04:51 AM.
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Old 09-08-2018, 11:40 AM
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Talking to my mate about this, he reckons incompetence will always win and no deal will happen. I think there is a lot of money at stake but I also have zero faith in those in charge of sorting it

That could be nasty for pensions and investments

Italy next? On the cusp of a collapse? Too big to bail, too big to fail
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Old 09-08-2018, 02:57 PM
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Interesting spread 7 votes so far.

No one thinks it will cost £20 billion or more.
One voter who left no comment thinks £15 billion like I do.
One each ditto ditto think it will be £10 billion and £5 billion respectively.
Two stalwarts who have something to say to support their view reckon on WGAF no deal = £0.
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Old 09-08-2018, 11:32 PM
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I'm not sure either side know the full effect of walking away with no deal. So as much as i think we'd be idiots to do that, i think the EU would be equally foolish to allow it to happen.

As above, given who is in 'charge' my opinion is Boris running for PM within a year and a no deal hard Brexit because our lazy politicians were too busy booking their next summer break.
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Old 09-09-2018, 04:04 AM
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around 75% of MPs are remainers

they are implacably opposed to Brexit in any form

of Brexiteer MPs, few would stomach the Chequers deal

the EU won't accept Chequers

May and her followers are in denial - Chequers is dead - stillborn would be a better term

so if she cannot get more time (and I don't believe she should get any) we will leave with no deal

and discover that the doom laden prophecies are just as much propaganda as the last lot

I hope May will be long gone before March - replaced with a pro Brexit PM with a positive outlook reflecting the hopes of the majority who voted leave

That's the only hope for a good deal before March

It's scandalous and ludicrous that we are being led by a Remainer PM and Remainer dominated cabinet
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Old 09-10-2018, 02:38 AM
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Probably more like 20 trillion as these imbeciles have (as predicted) wasted the past two years with petty party politics and ignoring the realities.

So we can likely expect a crash-out, probably followed by a crash-in when it all goes tits and if we cannot get our own certifications, processes etc up and running in record time.

That'd be fitting, in a way; we the Gov't promised we'd leave, but we've delivered fully-in without the former concessions. Great. At least people will know never to vote again, because the bloody Government always gets in.
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Old 09-20-2018, 09:47 AM
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As of now 4 think we will leave at a price while 6 are in the WGAF leave with no deal.

We should not underestimate May's ability to wriggle around and survive. Ditto ditto the EU lot.

For me, the hope is that May can change tack and adopt the Canada++ approach Tusk mentioned in March.

All under cover of darkness. Talking of which, don't underestimate the sheer funk the prospect of Boris brings to the EU lot
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Old 09-21-2018, 01:01 AM
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Originally Posted by gaddafi View Post
around 75% of MPs are remainers

they are implacably opposed to Brexit in any form

of Brexiteer MPs, few would stomach the Chequers deal

the EU won't accept Chequers

May and her followers are in denial - Chequers is dead - stillborn would be a better term

so if she cannot get more time (and I don't believe she should get any) we will leave with no deal

and discover that the doom laden prophecies are just as much propaganda as the last lot

I hope May will be long gone before March - replaced with a pro Brexit PM with a positive outlook reflecting the hopes of the majority who voted leave

That's the only hope for a good deal before March

It's scandalous and ludicrous that we are being led by a Remainer PM and Remainer dominated cabinet
Looks like Gaddafi is right. Chequers has been rejected by the EU Council as cherry picking i.e. common rules on goods but us freewheeling on services. Also, the EU doesn't go for us collecting their customs duties and managing refunds - which a recent study reckoned would cost (us) a lot. On the NI border issue I see the EU moving towards our 'solve by IT' fantasy for what was always an invented issue to keep us on the hop.

I see the 'cherry picking' and 'customs collection' as points of principle for the EU and they won't budge on these, being wedded to the so-called freedoms on principle. If the Maybot includes services in the common rule book and suggests we remain in the EU customs union to concede these EU objections, we might as well never have left the EU and won't be able to strike our own trade deals. We will be a fully fledged rule taker with no voting rights (not that it ever made a difference we lost every issue we fought.) Barnier heard Gove say recently 'we can change it later' so he will bind us in perpetuity, never mind the UK's constitutional rules.

All that will remain (!) then will be to hear from the EU, what is their index-linked price for everlasting slavery?

We may (!) now see a general election - and sooner rather than later.

Not holding my breath though.

Last edited by arsie; 09-21-2018 at 01:09 AM.
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Old 09-21-2018, 11:01 AM
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The main problem really is that the EU want to give us as poor a deal as possible. They don't want any other nation to dare attempt to leave again. I know it's been the case for a while now but I find it amazing to think that 1945 (and even 1918) was in a lot of peoples lifetime and not really that long ago and yet here we are with Germany calling all the shots in Europe and France et al as their lapdog. Unbelievable.
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