The car of the near future
04-05-2010, 07:20 PM
#1
Thread Starter
The car of the near future
"What will your next car be?"
It's a common question and as a car buff, it is one you ask and are asked many times in the course of a year. But if you think you will be buying your next new car in five or six years from now, what do you think that new car will be? What choices will you have?
Car experts, fans and journalists usually have a pretty good idea of what will be out next year, or the year after that. Sometimes we even get wind of what is under development and expected in the next three or even four years. But when we think about five, six or seven years out, the best we can do is make educated guesses, and read or listen to the guesses of those more educated than we. Often those predictions are very far off he mark. Sometimes a prototype seen at a car show gives an accurate prediction of a single model of the future. But without some really good inside information, the best we can do is guess.
Today we have a hint at what the cars of the near future will be. Our government just announced the fuel economy requirements for 2016. Each manufacturers fleet average must be 34 MPG. This is for all cars AND trucks. See the article from CNN here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/01/autos/cafe...final/index.htm Today's fleet average is 27 MPG for cars and only 23 for trucks. So the builders have to improve economy by some 30% over six years.
Some of you may be thinking, "Well, that doesn't sound too hard. If they gain about one or one and a half MPG per year, by 2016 they will have hit the number." But not so quick. Let's not forget that automotive product planning takes years from proposal to production. The cars and trucks of 2016 will need to be conceived very soon if they are to be developed and produced in time. Emerging technology that is cutting edge today will have to be something that can be mass produced very soon, or it won't make the cut.
I predict hybrid and electric car technology will lead the way to this near future. The manufacturers saw these requirements coming. It was just a matter of learning the exact final number. But whether than number was 34 MPG or 36 MPG, the use of electric and hybrid technology was assured. But is this the entire answer?
Recently, Road & Track published an article by staff technology editor, Dennis Simanitis. The good engineer offers this partial solution "Add Lightness." I recommend this article to anyone who is interested in the future of the industry. http://www.roadandtrack.com/auto_news/tech...-more-lightness His most interesting point is this: Had manufacturers kept car weight and performance about the same for the past 16 years and applied all the technological advances towards economy, average economy today would be close to 40 MPG. But manufacturers added weight and performance aplenty. While MPG improved, the improvement was slight as a result of a three way compromise between luxury, economy and acceleration.
So what can you expect in 2016? In addition to the electric and hybrids, expect to see lighter, smaller cars. I think it is also safe to say that you will not see big increases in performance as compared to today's averages. Also, you will see an increase in the number of new cars that are not sold in the US. One easy way to make the US average is to simply keep the gas guzzulers off shore.
If you plan to buy a larger car and want high levels of performance, expect to find more hybrids than non hybrids on your shopping list. And if you want sporty, expect to see some interesting hybrid combinations along the lines of Honda's CRZ. But I think the most interesting development will be the light weights and mini cars of the future. Whatever the fleet looks like, it will look considerably different than today's fleet. Get ready for some changes.
It's a common question and as a car buff, it is one you ask and are asked many times in the course of a year. But if you think you will be buying your next new car in five or six years from now, what do you think that new car will be? What choices will you have?
Car experts, fans and journalists usually have a pretty good idea of what will be out next year, or the year after that. Sometimes we even get wind of what is under development and expected in the next three or even four years. But when we think about five, six or seven years out, the best we can do is make educated guesses, and read or listen to the guesses of those more educated than we. Often those predictions are very far off he mark. Sometimes a prototype seen at a car show gives an accurate prediction of a single model of the future. But without some really good inside information, the best we can do is guess.
Today we have a hint at what the cars of the near future will be. Our government just announced the fuel economy requirements for 2016. Each manufacturers fleet average must be 34 MPG. This is for all cars AND trucks. See the article from CNN here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/01/autos/cafe...final/index.htm Today's fleet average is 27 MPG for cars and only 23 for trucks. So the builders have to improve economy by some 30% over six years.
Some of you may be thinking, "Well, that doesn't sound too hard. If they gain about one or one and a half MPG per year, by 2016 they will have hit the number." But not so quick. Let's not forget that automotive product planning takes years from proposal to production. The cars and trucks of 2016 will need to be conceived very soon if they are to be developed and produced in time. Emerging technology that is cutting edge today will have to be something that can be mass produced very soon, or it won't make the cut.
I predict hybrid and electric car technology will lead the way to this near future. The manufacturers saw these requirements coming. It was just a matter of learning the exact final number. But whether than number was 34 MPG or 36 MPG, the use of electric and hybrid technology was assured. But is this the entire answer?
Recently, Road & Track published an article by staff technology editor, Dennis Simanitis. The good engineer offers this partial solution "Add Lightness." I recommend this article to anyone who is interested in the future of the industry. http://www.roadandtrack.com/auto_news/tech...-more-lightness His most interesting point is this: Had manufacturers kept car weight and performance about the same for the past 16 years and applied all the technological advances towards economy, average economy today would be close to 40 MPG. But manufacturers added weight and performance aplenty. While MPG improved, the improvement was slight as a result of a three way compromise between luxury, economy and acceleration.
So what can you expect in 2016? In addition to the electric and hybrids, expect to see lighter, smaller cars. I think it is also safe to say that you will not see big increases in performance as compared to today's averages. Also, you will see an increase in the number of new cars that are not sold in the US. One easy way to make the US average is to simply keep the gas guzzulers off shore.
If you plan to buy a larger car and want high levels of performance, expect to find more hybrids than non hybrids on your shopping list. And if you want sporty, expect to see some interesting hybrid combinations along the lines of Honda's CRZ. But I think the most interesting development will be the light weights and mini cars of the future. Whatever the fleet looks like, it will look considerably different than today's fleet. Get ready for some changes.
04-06-2010, 04:50 AM
#3
Interesting...I have no plans to get rid of the S, so it will be awhile before there's another car in my future. 
04-06-2010, 05:04 AM
#4
Thread Starter
I added the link to the Road & Track article to the original post.
04-06-2010, 06:02 AM
#5
Good link, LB. That article is an example of why I subscribe to R&T.
You don't mention clean diesels. I have a feeling as the shortcomings of hybrids become more widely apparent, diesels will come back into vogue.
Since my next purchase will likely be another S of later vintage or a replacement for my commuter/beater, it is already plying the highways somewhere. But as to new cars in five years, here are a few things I expect to see more widely:
Small displacement turbocharged engines
Electronic management of individual valves
Direct Injection
Elimination of the throttle body
Automatic dual clutch transmissions
Braking assist
Torque vectoring center and rear differentials
Lane departure warning systems
Navigation/road condition/traffic display systems
Heads up displays
I think the good old IC engine still has some legs and some new tricks to offer.
You don't mention clean diesels. I have a feeling as the shortcomings of hybrids become more widely apparent, diesels will come back into vogue.
Since my next purchase will likely be another S of later vintage or a replacement for my commuter/beater, it is already plying the highways somewhere. But as to new cars in five years, here are a few things I expect to see more widely:
Small displacement turbocharged engines
Electronic management of individual valves
Direct Injection
Elimination of the throttle body
Automatic dual clutch transmissions
Braking assist
Torque vectoring center and rear differentials
Lane departure warning systems
Navigation/road condition/traffic display systems
Heads up displays
I think the good old IC engine still has some legs and some new tricks to offer.
04-06-2010, 06:45 AM
#6
Thread Starter
You are correct, I did leave out diesels. I think it is becuase the US market does not seem to have much interest in them. But that could change in the coming five or six years.
04-06-2010, 06:47 AM
#7
Originally Posted by Legal Bill,Apr 5 2010, 11:20 PM
"What will your next car be?"
Our government just announced the fuel economy requirements for 2016. Each manufacturers fleet average must be 34 MPG. This is for all cars AND trucks. See the article from CNN here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/01/autos/cafe...final/index.htm Today's fleet average is 27 MPG for cars and only 23 for trucks. So the builders have to improve economy by some 30% over six years.
Our government just announced the fuel economy requirements for 2016. Each manufacturers fleet average must be 34 MPG. This is for all cars AND trucks. See the article from CNN here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/01/autos/cafe...final/index.htm Today's fleet average is 27 MPG for cars and only 23 for trucks. So the builders have to improve economy by some 30% over six years.
There has to be real concern about the new CAFE standards. NO manufacturer of 4-wheeled vehicles for the road has a fleet average of anywhere near 34mpg, and looking at the state of things today, the only way it appears to attain it is for all cars to become Prius/Civic Hybrid clones.
I don't know if the new fleet average mpg's is supposed to be based on HIGHWAY EPA ratings, or 'average' EPA ratngs. For instance, the 'highway' EPA rating for a Civic is 36mpg.... the 'average' EPA rating is 29mpg. Honda's fleet average is nowhere near 34mpg, regardless of how you look at it. A 34mpg AVERAGE for a manufacturer's fleet is a pretty tall order, no matter which EPA number you use. I do a bit more highway driving than town driving with my 'conventional' '08 Civic, and it is averaging just over 30mpg.
The Civic, Fit, Insight and the FCX Clarity are Honda's most efficient cars. They are already lightened, and the motors and trannys are among the most technologically advanced of any on the market. Honda has pulled out all the stops in the engine for the Crosstour, with their variable cylinder usage of 3-4-6.... and its 'highway' EPA rating is only 25mpg.
Getting to a FLEET average (made even worse by having to include trucks) of 34mpg by 2016 would appear to be pretty unrealistic, unless 80% of the vehicles on the road resemble Vespa scooters with a roof and doors.
I have an uneasy feeling that the changes coming in the cars available over the next 3-5 years are going to make the unpleasantness of what we had to drive in the early 70s pale by comparison.
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04-06-2010, 06:51 AM
#8
Thread Starter
^Yup. this is no small order, and I think things will be markedly different in six years.
04-06-2010, 06:58 AM
#9
Roy is alive! 
04-06-2010, 07:00 AM
#10
My great fear is that the upcoming CAFE standards will not only limit our automotive choices, but will also drive manufacturers to technologies that create more environmental and safety issues than they will solve.
As a side note I read recently what I had long suspected. A modern ULEV vehicle such as the current Accord actually cleans the air when driven in many metropolitan areas. (That is, if you don't factor in that pesky CO2 output.) Also, it is becoming increasingly difficult to commit suicide in one's garage. The carbon monoxide output is so low as to be ineffective. And waiting for fatal CO2 levels takes considerably longer.
As a side note I read recently what I had long suspected. A modern ULEV vehicle such as the current Accord actually cleans the air when driven in many metropolitan areas. (That is, if you don't factor in that pesky CO2 output.) Also, it is becoming increasingly difficult to commit suicide in one's garage. The carbon monoxide output is so low as to be ineffective. And waiting for fatal CO2 levels takes considerably longer.