Legal Bill

Very interesting predictions. And they make very good sense, too.

A 2

This has been posted to the Front Page. Thanks LB and thank you Jim for sharing the link

https://www.s2ki.com/home/2010/04/17/vintag...ur-next-car-be/

ace123

I'm curious to see if the administration can hold this one. I expect it will make progress as the engineering starts now, but if the major manufacturers are only at 31mpg I don't think the federal government will make them shut the plants down. Subsidizing and such to manipulate purchasing for compliance makes sense.

I wonder if this will drive R&D and then compromise half a year before the deadline when it's done its job--just like the deadlines for the cash bonuses on the housing. As soon as the day comes, the law has done its job, but the deadline gets extended. Then it's like dangling a carrot. It will work for a while longer.

S1997

First off, congratulations, Bill, for an excellent write up that was chosen by the editors to appear on the S2ki Home Page!

It's an interesting question.

As everybody knows, it seems that the most obvious way to become more fuel efficient in the national fleet is to dump some size and weight.

For example, European vehicles have typically been much smaller and lighter than cars in our fleet for many years.

And despite accepting cars with much lower power (on the average) than ours, they love power as much as we do. So they have designed smaller power plants that still perform well. For example more and more European cars are being sold with small turbocharged or supercharged engines. And over half of all vehicles sold in -- for example -- Germany are fuel efficient diesel engines with turbochargers to furnish loads of torque. So far the only passenger cars with turbo-diesels being offered to American customers are made by the Germans-- Mercedes, VW, Audi, BMW,..., and they are both powerful and highly fuel efficient. The Japanese made some noises about marketing small turbo-diesel cars in the US last year, but backed out before any brochures were printed.

It has even been indicated that the most efficient hybrids of the future will be partly powered by diesel. I told my Honda dealer last week -- I was at the parts counter and the store manager wanted me to buy a new car -- that the next car I buy from Honda would be a diesel powered vehicle -- and that he should call me when he gets one to sell.

Ford has been the leader in the US Pickup truck market with their F150 for many, many years. Sure they claim that the engines get more fuel efficient every year, but -- well -- they still suck gas at enormous rates; for one thing, because the weight of the trucks has not really decreased. And the trucks just get larger and larger with the advent of each new challenger. At least Americans have been able to buy turbo-diesels in pickups for some years.

I saw a news report last week saying that the new Ford 150s will be offered with smaller engines with forced induction -- probably turbos. The result will be power equal to the big V8s, with greatly improved fuel economy. I see this as one of the solutions of the near future.

The turbo-diesel engines like the VW TDI, and the Mercedes CDI or Bluetec, the BMW ... etc. are now able to meet CARB requirements easily, and are almost as quiet as gasoline engines used to be. I have been driving diesel engined vehicles since the late 70s and now own two: a 1979 VW Golf diesel , and a newer CDI. Because of the high torque and fuel economy of the new diesels, they are terrific.

So to answer LB's question from my point of view, I think my future car of the next decade will be smaller, lighter, and have a hybrid diesel power plant with forced induction.

But I will want it to be fast as well!

A 2

^ with your assessment Jim

As I posted in the comments section. A possible list for my next car would be:
- A turbo diesel
- HONDA CR-Z (definitely buying if they launch an Si version)
- Lightweight car like the Elise

I was very impressed with the Jetta TDi wagon they had on display at the Albany auto show. All the more because it came with a proper manual transmission. I so wish Honda had not backtracked on their plans of bringing diesels here to the US.

I fear though we are a minority. The turbo-charged 4-bangers and diesel powertrains may never find mass market success here.

Hastys2k

I will drive my S till the wheels fall off ( hopefully never)

Legal Bill

aashish, thanks for posting my write-up on the home page. I think I should have done some editing before you posted it. I apologize for the typos, misspellings, and bad grammar.

Several of the cars scheduled for release over the next year or two will be plug-in electrics. It will be interesting to see how these cars lower the fleet average for their respective manufacturers.

dlq04

China will be the dominant market for most automobile manufacturers for decades to come. It’s impossible to imagine a US manufacture producing ‘high’ volume cars, with appeal, that would work in both countries today but they better be working on it right now. I think the new mileage goals will work in their favor to condition the US market for what will become the world market for the winners.

robb

Great post Bill. I enjoying looking through my old C&D and R&T magazines and reading the sections they have with the prototypes in them more often than not what they think the future will bring isn't what ends up being developed.

Legal Bill

Thanks, Robb. I agree, the car mag predictions of specific cars are usually off the mark. They make for fun reading though.