The end of the Internal Combustion Engine
 

Today i read about the tenth article in the past year or so about the demise of the ICE. The latest articles claim that the manufacturers are not developing new families of engines any longer. The bridge to all electric will continue to be the hybrid and there is no need to invest big money in new ICE families when the current crop will work fine with the electric drives for hybrid duty. Here are a couple of such articles. The one I read today appeared in the Haggerty magazine which caters to collector car owners, but has recently expanded its scope. Anyway, these links will give you the idea. Note the doom and gloom comes right from the car companies.

https://www.economist.com/news/leade...ed-world-death

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidki.../#1b0ae3f9211e

The Internal Combustion Engine's Days Are Numbered, Supplier Says - The Drive

Now, I'll probably be gone from this earth by 2050. But it saddens me to think that there won't be much in the way of new ICEs during the remainder of my life. I'm sure there will still be plenty of tuning. Look how long GM has ridden the old V-8 ohv architecture in applications like the Corvette. I wonder what this will mean for boats. Most boat engines are based on existing automobile engines. I wonder if they will be available in their current form into the future? I also wonder what this will do to the classic car market? Some could argue they will go up in value once there are fewer choices in the new car market for an ICE powered vehicle. But I think that in the long run, the opposite will be true. People who grow up with hybrids and pure EVs are not going to have much emotional attachment to the pure ICE cars. So my premise is that the ICE powered vehicle will generally fade from existence, albeit in 75 years.

Who can say what the future holds . . . we all recall what Popular Mechanics said it would look like but it never happened. One guy who I really respect when it comes to predictions is Bob Lutz. This is a rather long video but worth it for Bob's comments...

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-vid...-lutz-on-tesla

I could get all depressed about not hearing 427 motors going bawump bawump bawump at idle anymore.
BUt.... the reality is the recent engines have been so much better. engines that last longer are way more efficient and produce substantially more horsepower.

Next gen motors are probably not true ICE only but a hybrid mix.
ok So they'll have electric motors on the turbos to spool up quicker.
Have you had a ride in a Tesla P90D or P100D? yikes they got some giddy-up.
the world won't end, we'll most likely have some rather special toys still available for our ( at least my) lifetime anyways.

What amazes me is that the public is really not demanding hybrids or electrics. They still make up a very small percentage of the market. Probably 3% total. Now in Norway, I read that hybrids and EVs are making up over 50% of new car sales. But Norway has heavy government sponsored incentives which include tax exemptions, special parking privileges, and free charging.

Speaking of Elon Musk and Tesla (you were, weren't you?) here is a neat animation of today's planned Falcon Heavy launch from Cape Canaveral, which includes a Tesla Roadster as the dummy payload, complete with driver!

Their website claims the launch will be shown live in two hours:

Falcon Heavy Test Flight | SpaceX

The Tesla is going to be launched into a solar orbit and there is some chance that it will crash into Mars in the future.

Musk said he came up with this payload idea himself because he thinks it would be cool for an alien race to come across a red sports car in space. I think he should have just programmed the mission to launch the car into the center of the Milky Way with a note that says "Don't Mess with Earth! We can destroy you with sports cars!!"

Honestly, I think this whole sports car payload idea is goofy. Musk should be building an Iron Man suit so that he can fly around the world fighting evil.

Pushed back to 3:10. Someone probably forgot to put air in the tires.

Culture, Infrastructure, relatively low gas prices compared to Europe?

Interesting take on increased CUV/SUV/Truck sales across Europe. http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...nate-in-europe .

I think if we saw $4 gas for prolonged time, we'd see another temporary shift.

Net energy exporter. . . largely to the rest of Europe. Between the hydroelectric and the Norwegian Sea Oil Reserves, they're swimming in (a finite generator of) money. My buddy's 1982 Mazda 626 Wagon was $8000: $4000 for the car + 100% Auto tax (cars are a luxury item). So, imagine a Tesla, which would otherwise be a $140K-$240K car, not only being reduced to US MSRP, but then having all the electricity you'd want + free parking + many road tolls removed/reduced + elimination of registration fees + no sales tax/VAT

The social aspects of this start at @4:10, including the Sovereign Wealth Fund, and the paradox of funding electric cars with it:

As far as the U.S. is concerned, I tend to sign on with the notion that we'll have a hybrid approach both in car choice, but also drivetrain-to-task. I could easily see a rural car dealership having a myriad of diesel, diesel hybrid, gas, and hydrogen options, where the suburban and urban car dealerships will progressively have greater battery, hydrogen, and hybrid choices.

. . . all-gas Internal Combustion Engines will be relegated to an enthusiast class within 10 years. After a run of enthusiast cars, then a run of nostalgia, I think Bill's 75 year prognostication is not impossible. After that, you can probably join a University's Internal Combustion club, and they'll let you learn how to repair a Chevy Ecotec, and then you can learn how to build and repair a 350 or 454.

I'd take a slightly longer view of that one. more like 15-20 but I could be wrong.
It will bring interesting changes with it.
A transition to all electric will dramatically affect whet the power grid looks like.
Take your average neighborhood. suddenly change the nightly power load for that area to 50KW per household to charge their car... wow.
transformers will be popping up and down the street.
Roads, Gasoline taxes currently pay for the bulk of maintenance. Going to have to revise that funding mechanism.

There are a lot of folks driving out of a showroom today with a 5, 6 or even a 7 year car loan.
Or folks that are buying a CPO with a five year loan,
They'll probably drive them for a while after they are paid for.

I'm not saying 10 years is a bad thing, I just don't think it will be that quick.
With that said, let's say the artic doesn't freeze up one year... or breaks up incredibly early with massive ice flows south...
Sometimes the winds of change come in hard and blow fast.
Look at how fast Toyota and Honda went from "who?" to dominant players in the market.