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Well, it's been a long time since we lamented the great recession. The ensuing bull market was arguably the longest lived in US history. From my vantage point, it looks like it is over.
The market fell another 2+ percent as of this writing. The 2018 gains are all gone and we are now even below the close of 2017 for many stocks. With the markets down over 10% (about half the S&P 500 is down of 20%) I think we are going right past "correction" territory and into Bear Market territory. It had to end sometime. Now the question is, how low will it go?
So what are your thoughts on the market? Do you think this is just a correction? Are you expecting a bear market? A crash??? Maybe your are optimistic?
2019 will be a crap shoot. No recession but no big rebounds either. Just a rollie-coaster year ahead. Biggest unknown is what happens in the area of tariffs.
DJI was 17888 November 4 2016 ...the sky isn't falling.
Levi
I agree with you. Markets are overpriced and we were due for at least a drawdown and - it looks like now- a pullback.
S&P500 index opened this morning at 2560 Next support level is at 2532 and the one below that is 2417.
We won"t reach the 20% "recession" level unless it falls below 2353.
US economy still in pretty good shape and still expanding albeit at a reduced rate.
Treasury bond 3mo-10yr curve close to but still not inverted and Fed will do all it can to prevent it from inverting [ and theoretically thereby preventing a recession].
The recent economic slowdown in rest of world is worrisome and could eventually be problem for us also.
I have been following a free website that some of you might be interest in looking at occasionally.
Below is a quote from their site
If interested in following I suggest you visit their website [see blow] and read their methodology. It's a easy read and shouldn't take more than 15 minutes. ECONPI
Did some triple top and triple bottom looks. Says take the difference between highs and lows. Then take that difference to leg down lower from triple bottom.
I did this and it got me to 2466.53. To which lands you only 1.9% higher than the 2417 support level trapper spoke of and lands at about 17% down.......just shy of the big bad "bear market". Still another 4% or so down from here till we hit support.
Just hope that we don't fall back to the 2016 support level. That would mean a 25% drop off highs.
I'll admit I love the quants. but unless you are looking at advanced modeling they aren't really saying anything.
And even then, the models are lying because they aren't taking in the true real time data driving the changes only the effects of the change.
In today's markets, sentiment and fear are driving the markets.
This means big swings based on panic runs and slow crawl backs checking the water again for sharks.
The models see the changes and reinforce the panic selling.
I respectfully disagree with some of what you've said;
Originally Posted by boltonblue
I'll admit I love the quants. but unless you are looking at advanced modeling they aren't really saying anything.
Sure they are..... At least the ones I look at. They're showing me historical long term trends on what they're measuring and what it MAY mean for the future... NOT what WILL happen.
That being said the quant issued by the NY Fed in1997 using 3mo and 10yr bond yield curves would have been almost spot on predicting 3 of the 4 previous recessions and also the one in 2008. That model is now giving warning signs. Is it correct.....you're right... who knows but I'm being cautious.
The quant I referenced in my above post above also indicated possible trouble before the start of the last two recessions. Again it is reflecting long term trends in various economic indicators.
It is now starting [if you look at preceeding monthly charts on their website] to show that we should be careful. Is the trend correct. Your guess is a good as mine.
And even then, the models are lying because they aren't taking in the true real time data driving the changes only the effects of the change.
In today's markets, sentiment and fear are driving the markets.
Lying... I'm not sure that's the correct word..... They're showing trends of what has happened.
But sentiment and fear are driving the market but I-for one- don't give a tinkers damn about what happens on a day to day basis.
This means big swings based on panic runs and slow crawl backs checking the water again for sharks.
Don't forget - and I may be wrong- that the majority of trades today are automated and made by computers.... not humans.
The sentiment and fear mentioned above is programmed into them.
Human trades are just small change now and brokers just LOVE people who panic. .
The models see the changes and reinforce the panic selling.
Not the two models I follow ......They give plenty of warning signs---up to a year in advance.
And people who panic shouldn't be in the market in the first place.
12-17-2018, 12:12 PM
Market Watch 2019.
