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Old 12-20-2018, 06:14 AM
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Re the Bar Analysis Grid: What a clever data representation. I got the methodology after reading the well written explanations on the site, but I'm taking the conclusions represented in the grid on faith, since I'm not familiar with some of the underlying indices.

One question came up right away: What is the LD or Average of Leading Indicators? I assume the values of the indicators are normalized in some way, just as the values used to plot each indicator is. But I could not find any details on the site. So what exactly is the LD?
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Old 12-20-2018, 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted by tof View Post
Re the Bar Analysis Grid: ...........One question came up right away: What is the LD or Average of Leading Indicators? I assume the values of the indicators are normalized in some way, just as the values used to plot each indicator is. But I could not find any details on the site. So what exactly is the LD?
I think the last paragraph in the FAQ section of their website answers your question;
See Quote below:
.................................................. ............
Q: What leading indicators are tracked on the BaR?
....
A: There are eight leading indicators tracked on the BaR: consumer sentiment, private building permits, small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, temporary employment, unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and yield curve spread (10-yr minus 3-month).
.................................................. ..........
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Old 12-20-2018, 08:41 AM
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Oh, so LD includes only 8 leading indicators while MoC is average (mean) of coordinates for all 19 indicators. Missed that. Thanks for clearing it up.
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Old 12-20-2018, 09:01 AM
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And for those clicking off the so-called support points that we are falling through, the S&P 500 is at 2467 at the moment...
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Old 12-20-2018, 10:17 AM
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Welp...I just reduced my exposure significantly. Hoping for the best. Preparing for the worst.
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Old 12-20-2018, 10:45 AM
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No matter what way the winds blowing - greed or fear - I'll just keeping riding my boat and hope to stay afloat. I don't try to time the market. I try to stay balanced and not listen to the noise.
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Old 12-20-2018, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by dlq04 View Post
No matter what way the winds blowing - greed or fear - I'll just keeping riding my boat and hope to stay afloat. I don't try to time the market. I try to stay balanced and not listen to the noise.
See you at the bottom of the waterfall, Dave.
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Old 12-20-2018, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by tof View Post
Welp...I just reduced my exposure significantly. Hoping for the best. Preparing for the worst.
The online site for the company that has our 401 is down today.....glad I did move a bit of $ yesterday. Wondering (of course) if I should have moved more of that $ in the small account and some in our other account. I spoke with the woman who handles our other account yesterday, we decided to talk after the holiday...........and then today...................Edit: Still down over 300 points. I was able to access the 401 site, moved most of the rest of the $ into a MOST conservative fund, and some into cash. I hadn't lost all that much there, and I did make $ last year so I can't complain. Just wanted to cut my loses while I could. I had planned on re-balancing a bit more anyway, so I'll consider this moving of the $ just part of the plan.

I hope the bargain hunters come out to play tomorrow! The decision not to panic may be easier for those who have a monthly pension, which supplements SS. For those who don't (like us) we may be looking at this from another angle.
Don't panic
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Old 12-20-2018, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Pinky View Post
Did some triple top and triple bottom looks. Says take the difference between highs and lows. Then take that difference to leg down lower from triple bottom.

I did this and it got me to 2466.53. To which lands you only 1.9% higher than the 2417 support level trapper spoke of and lands at about 17% down.......just shy of the big bad "bear market". Still another 4% or so down from here till we hit support.

Just hope that we don't fall back to the 2016 support level. That would mean a 25% drop off highs.

Pretty good Jim. 2467.42 at the end of today. How are you guys feeling about the market now?
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Old 12-20-2018, 04:11 PM
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Ambivalent. I'm mostly on the sidelines until March, the soonest I can reallocate funds out of my 403b fixed income fund.
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