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Stock Market & Economic Outlook

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Old 04-15-2010, 06:19 AM
  #11  
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I think the next few months will be good ones for the Dow as investors grasp at every bit of good news that comes out during a long slow recovery. So far so good. Thanks to a 401K (actually a 403B but nobody knows what those are) that is heavily loaded with equity and index funds I'm back to where I was two years ago.

And you know what they say: Cut your losses and let your winnings run.

But I do see the day not far down the road when the chickens come home to roost. The boys in Washington dug a pretty deep hole fighting the recession. (I'll save my views on how effective those efforts actually were for "Politics".) And eventually they will have to crank up the printing presses at the mint to keep the government afloat. I remember how much Wall Street hates inflation. When those clouds start gathering on the horizon I'll be moving to safer ground.

OK...that's about a weeks worth of metaphors so I guess I'm done.
Old 04-15-2010, 07:01 AM
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Interesting topic, and I will also voice my feelings about missing John here, too

It's funny you should bring this up now. As many of you know, we use an advising firm, that I have come to trust implicitly. On Monday, I called the analyst at the firm and asked, "Should we be looking at selling off anything?"

His response was that he thought things would continue up for the time being and he gave me a number of technical reasons for that belief, but like Lainey said, I have given up on trying to time the market. I believe that I heard this AM that housing starts are up, and that is a good situation for the market.

Personally, I see no reason for the market to pull back, as many of the blue chips now are considered multi-nationals and derive revenue from around the world, the recession appears to be easing, but it is and will continue to be jobless as long as it is advantageous for multi-nationals to move jobs off-shore, as they look for the cheapest labor pool.

I don't know if this is a good time, but we are starting to rebalance and are adding to to our holdings.
Old 05-04-2010, 11:22 AM
  #13  

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The market's taking a good hit today - down about 250 most of the day. It's been over 90 days since I last put a toe in, so I put in another toe this afternoon. The problems in Greece could drive things lower but, no matter, I'm staying in this time.
Old 05-04-2010, 12:40 PM
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^ SMART! sit tight someone sneezes and the market goes up or down. It will all even out in the long haul
Old 05-04-2010, 04:26 PM
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How many times will the market go up and down due to the situation in Greece. One day they are being bailed out, the next day they are back to near collapse. The U.S. market is recovering well but I guess if Bora Bora's economy fails we will take another hit. I am sitting tight as well but it can be furstrating.
Old 05-05-2010, 05:50 AM
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Interesting thread. Not being a Pollyanna but, I see the economic news as very positive. Most of the earnings announcements have been over expectation. I see that as a good sign that companies will start hiring again. Consumer spending and housing starts are also up. All good signs.
I am back in the market but mostly in REITS. Looking for good dividend payments and not necessarily stock appreciation. Also getting back into funds. Have a few that have a nice monthly pay out at over 7% a year. Picking up short term (< 2 years) corporate bonds in the secondary market if I can get them a less than face value. With less than 18 months to go before retirement I want to build a good cash flow so I do not have to touch my principle.
Old 05-05-2010, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted by mns2k,May 5 2010, 08:50 AM
...With less than 18 months to go before retirement I want to build a good cash flow so I do not have to touch my principle.
Interesting that this was MY plan, but Vanguard has advocated a different strategy and I'm giving it a try.

1) Instead of generating CASH each year, focus on growth of your entire diversified holdings.

2) During annual review, sell holdings in a manner that REBALANCES your holdings; and replenish your cash in a Money Mkt fund or whatever.

I think their idea is that it's better to pay cap gains at a low tax % ....versus earning a lot of dividends that are taxed at your full tax bracket rate.

All good signs.
I am back in the market but mostly in REITS. ...
I bailed out of a large REIT holding 6 months ago....fearing bad times in mid-2010 as the empty commercial office buildings create a drag on REIT cash flow.

Of course, the Vanguard REIT Index Fund is up more than 50% since I pulled out my $$$
Old 05-05-2010, 10:08 AM
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The stock market is full of "if only's" but also a lot of "thank god's" as well. "If only" I had bought Ford at $1.85..... over $12 last I looked. "Thank god" I didn't have all my money in _________ when it went in the toilet.
Old 05-05-2010, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by dlq04,May 5 2010, 01:08 PM
The stock market is full of "if only's" but also a lot of "thank god's" as well. "If only" I had bought Ford at $1.85..... over $12 last I looked. "Thank god" I didn't have all my money in _________ when it went in the toilet.
Somewhere around here, I wrote about buying Ford when it was under $2.00 a share, but I never did pull the trigger.
Old 05-06-2010, 10:51 AM
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Rough ride today. Down 844 for a while, last look -670.


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