Market Watch 2017
06-20-2017, 03:29 PM
#1
Thread Starter
Market Watch 2017
I've done well so far this year. But this bull market is getting pretty long in the tooth. It may be time to reallocate. I'll be talking with my guy next week. Any of you making defensive moves?
06-20-2017, 08:28 PM
#2
nope
06-21-2017, 05:09 AM
#3
Not making any major changes but slowly accumulating cash by selling stocks with low yields and high P/E ratios. I'm also keeping a very close eye on:
The unemployment rate trends.
The S&P 500 P/E ratio is very high [25.78] which is a worry.
The VIX [Volatility Index]. It’s low-which is good- but so low it’s indicating investor complacency.
The 10yr Treasury Bond rate- Currently at 2.16%. It could spell trouble if it gets to 2.6`~3.0%.
The ever flattening 10yr/2yr Treasury Bond Yield Curve Ratio, It’s currently at 1.6% and has been dropping for over a year. If it gets to 1 or less it also could spell trouble.
On the positive side a “Recession Prediction” model by The Federal Reserve Bank Of New York in 1996 and back tested correctly predicted 4 recessions since 1971. It is currently predicting a 1.8% probability of a recession in 2 to 4 quarters. Any value above 25% is cause for concern. The downside of the model is that the probability can change very quickly.
The unemployment rate trends.
The S&P 500 P/E ratio is very high [25.78] which is a worry.
The VIX [Volatility Index]. It’s low-which is good- but so low it’s indicating investor complacency.
The 10yr Treasury Bond rate- Currently at 2.16%. It could spell trouble if it gets to 2.6`~3.0%.
The ever flattening 10yr/2yr Treasury Bond Yield Curve Ratio, It’s currently at 1.6% and has been dropping for over a year. If it gets to 1 or less it also could spell trouble.
On the positive side a “Recession Prediction” model by The Federal Reserve Bank Of New York in 1996 and back tested correctly predicted 4 recessions since 1971. It is currently predicting a 1.8% probability of a recession in 2 to 4 quarters. Any value above 25% is cause for concern. The downside of the model is that the probability can change very quickly.
06-21-2017, 01:02 PM
#5
Moderator
As my advisor keeps saying, "(It's) the most reluctant bull market in (his) history."
The only change I've made is putting moving more (more, but FAR from all) into VEA (Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF). My advisor says (and I've seen similar moves elsewhere) that Europe will knee higher this year than the USA. I'll assume after years of pummeling over Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, the relative stability of the present is some great runway for growth over there.
The only change I've made is putting moving more (more, but FAR from all) into VEA (Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF). My advisor says (and I've seen similar moves elsewhere) that Europe will knee higher this year than the USA. I'll assume after years of pummeling over Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, the relative stability of the present is some great runway for growth over there.
06-23-2017, 02:31 PM
#6
Moderator
More insight about the reluctant bull and The Fed:
06-23-2017, 03:57 PM
#7
Met with our guys a few weeks ago, nothing defensive at this time. So much of the movement is in a very diverse set of sectors, and they see no need to change at this time. Gains, in emerging markets, commodities, small cap and large cap, with stable fundamentals. Staying the course.
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09-12-2017, 11:02 AM
#9
Thread Starter
I didn't move anything out yet...
09-12-2017, 01:42 PM
#10