Ask Unkie Trunkie!
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From: SJC
Originally Posted by DanZilla,Nov 14 2009, 03:53 PM
Not sure who he is... but yeah 
Who would win a fight...Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?
Who would win a fight...Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?
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From: SJC
Originally Posted by zzziippyyy,Nov 15 2009, 11:30 AM
Unkie who is gonna winzz the superbowl i need to start making my early betzzz
However, Unkie Trunkie is noting that the open is 18/1, with 3/1 current on New Orleans. Given that Indy opened at 8/1, and is current at 15/4; it's safe to say most smart hedges are already priced in.
What I hadn't noticed until today though is the NFC Championship w/ Dallas - opened at 5/1, and is current at 5/1.
It's hard to tell if there's anything worth deducing from this.
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From: SJC
FWIW, I just checked the offshore line as well (http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/),
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
Team Open Current
New Orleans 18/1 3/1
Indianapolis 8/1 15/4
Trunkie's somewhat-proven theory:
1. Las Vegas/Sportsbooks are the discounters of all sports information
2. The odds are the % or factor of discount
2a. Understand that the spread, minimum bet line, etc. are factors of discount in addition to the line deduced by all known information
3. Place a bet against Vegas if there's something you know that they don't (this is good stock theory as well).
3a. If you know nothing more than Vegas does, but you bet with them, then the bet is against the % or factor of discount. Therein lies the real gambling.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
Team Open Current
New Orleans 18/1 3/1
Indianapolis 8/1 15/4
Trunkie's somewhat-proven theory:
1. Las Vegas/Sportsbooks are the discounters of all sports information
2. The odds are the % or factor of discount
2a. Understand that the spread, minimum bet line, etc. are factors of discount in addition to the line deduced by all known information
3. Place a bet against Vegas if there's something you know that they don't (this is good stock theory as well).
3a. If you know nothing more than Vegas does, but you bet with them, then the bet is against the % or factor of discount. Therein lies the real gambling.
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Originally Posted by 8D_In_Trunk,Nov 14 2009, 06:26 PM
I actually did see that here at one point. . . but only for specialty breads.
However, since it seems to always be about you; how about we blame it on an international breeding conspiracy. . .
However, since it seems to always be about you; how about we blame it on an international breeding conspiracy. . .
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From: SJC
Originally Posted by zzziippyyy,Nov 15 2009, 12:05 PM
^ I want to know who you think is going to win fuck what vegas thinks, Unkie knows all so that what really matters to me!
Everything else is emotion-based betting, which often (not always) leads to FAIL.
