tritium_pie

I like you said so calmly.

GPMike

The Greek and Roman Empires didn't last forever did they? Keep laughing. The cynicism and apathy of this country combined with the complete lunacy of Fed monetary policy will make the Mexican Hyperinflation look like kindergarten. When China stops buying our debt...and they will, the bottom falls out. It won't be pretty.

tritium_pie

bingo.

GPMike

[QUOTE=SteveUCI,Jan 21 2008, 08:15 PM] Not sure why you guys are laughing at GPMike's comment.

GPMike

No question our society is the most innovative in the history of mankind. No doubts about that at all.

I am just worried that once the collapse comes...there are certain vultures that will want to exact an "ounce of flesh" from us. I look at what is going on geopolitically as well as the markets. The enemy is surrounding us and will soon outgun us.

sahtt

GPMike.. I don't want to seem ostentatious but perhaps you'll take me at my word, I've probably read the majority of the material you have, if not more. I'm going to go out on a limb and also say I've, at one point or another, had the same mind set as you.

However, there is a theme that transcends that which you analyze. The dollar bill. In whatever form that happens to be, for now it's called the dollar bill. I at one point was 'afraid' that America's downfall could be a bit 'sharp'. If you think it's just talk, ask my why I'm fluent in Mandarin Chinese. Do you think I was just bored one day and decided to learn the most difficult commonly used language in the world [for a native English speaker]? Or perhaps it was more a complex form of livelihood and security insurance? That is just one example of action I have taken, there is much more.

But during the last bit of studying economics/global finance in college, I was also investing in foreign stocks, primarily Chinese/HK. My personal strategy revolves around what I do best-macroeconomic research accompanied by a careful eye on government policy.

I think you underestimate human greed. Substantially. There is one thing in common that simply countered any drastic U.S. downfall due to foreign action scenario I could think of [I'm not paranoid, just curious and like to hedge well]. The dollar bill. Anyone who's been around the block working with or researching the Asian governments know that the environment, human rights issues, citizen freedom, citizen health-all pales in importance to one thing. The dollar bill.

Come up with a realistic scenario [the Chinese abandoning our debt for example] that doesn't end up costing the Chinese and most of its buyers outside of the U.S. [as well as all the countries that supply its enormous hunger for commodities such as South America] money. They will not act in a manner that will make them poorer. The unexpected consequence of globalization is becoming clear. The Arabs have to sink oil dollars back in to our battered financial sector to keep us afloat. They don't give a $hit about us for the most part. But they do care about the dollar bill.

As soon as you come up a with a profitable means of a U.S. Apocalypse, then you should get worried. I've ran the figures and the scenarios, so far there aren't any. Now if this 'slowdown' becomes a 'global depression', that's when leaders get desperate and bodies hit the floor, if anytime. However, for now, the king dollar will force the global superpowers to restrain themselves from most of the things we who read perhaps a little too much fear.

GPMike

[QUOTE=sahtt,Jan 22 2008, 12:06 AM] GPMike.. I don't want to seem ostentatious but perhaps you'll take me at my word, I've probably read the majority of the material you have, if not more.

sahtt

GPMike, I do not necessarily disagree with your points, but I think I have analyzed the situation differently and I admit on the social issues I'm less educated. Let's focus on china for a bit, I can't get in to too much detail because it's nearly 1am and I need to go to sleep.

The current Chinese government is what it is and has accomplished what it has accomplished socially because of the rising standard of living and maybe more important-rising potential. China's history isn't very glamorous in terms of balance of power and where it has sat.

Currently, its government has managed to put a sort of 'invisible hand' like that of ol' Adam's in almost all levels of anything remotely structured, whether it be school/military/economy/etc. IMO, to maintain stability and its grip on its people, it will need to continue its current economic expansion significantly to support this. I follow the governments' economic plans [their 'congress'] fairly closely. I actually studied their economic 'liberalization' that started in the early 80's in college. They are about 1/2 through it progress wise, but timewise I think it's much less. They are currently forcefully but carefully degrading the economy to 7-8% yoy GDP growth from the now 11-12$ levels. That's stage II of IV stages, loosely speaking.

That's why I said for the short-medium term [decade or two], to maintain their goals and all the interconnected relationships, I'm not worried about it. Longer term but still well within our lifetimes, I have absolutely no clue but I do have some rather dismal ideas. But at some point it's not worth worrying about daily. For me it's not there, yet. No matter what I seem to learn, I try to remember there is always two sides to every story and it usually takes a lot more effort to figure out the one I find less interesting.

rai

this is getting a bit OT but interesting none-the-less

I would ask GPMike if/when China is going to destroy US with with/without the aid of Russia. How is this going to happen? Will it be atomic ICBMs or an invasion of mainland US?

I can not see that happening with our military superiority to the ROW. I could be wrong but the US spends about as much on Military as the ROW combined.

Would not an invasion force have to come across the ocean or sky to the US and dosn't the US have a counter measure to stop ships and planes (an ICBMs) before as well as having more local military presence in Aisa than China has in the western hemisphere.

How big a gun will I need when the "Red Dawn" comes?

Also just some of the ROW is against US, more than likely UK, Canada, Australlia, Germany, Japan, India etc.. will be on our side so it'd be interesting to say the least.

Get your popcorn ready.

QUIKAG

Paranoia begets paranoia.

If the U.S. goes down, the world goes down. That is a fact for the next several decades and with everyone acting in their self-interest (save for the crazy fringe groups), the U.S. will be supported. Prime example is the Asian and Middle Eastern investments into U.S. entities the past couple weeks.

This is part of the globalization of the economy and the U.S. has and will continue to lead the globalization. Yes, many countries are 'catching up', but we are still the leader and that won't change anytime soon.

If you guys think the U.S. is going to explode, then go sell everything and live up in Northern Canada or wherever. See where that gets you.