I have no idea if anyone out there is a fan, but the wife and I love horse racing.
The third "jewel" of the Triple Crown is this weekend so I figured I'd post in case anyone else plays the ponies.

The horses have been drawn:

1 Medal Count 20-1

2 California Chrome 3-5 *

3 Matterhorn 30-1

4 Commanding Curve 15-1 **

5 Ride On Curlin 12-1 **

6 Matuszak 30-1

7 Samraat 20-1 ***

8 Commissioner 20-1 ***

9 Wicked Strong 6-1 **

10 General a Rod 20-1

11 Tonalist 8-1 **
[I've put asterisks next to my First (*) Scond (**) and Third (***) choice picks]


I'm shocked at his odds, but I (like the experts) can't see Chrome getting beat in this race.
It's not a lock (nothing ever is) but Chome's so far superior than the other horses, like the other 6 races he's run this year it's his race to lose.

"It'll take a combination of things to beat him, that's for sure. One of our horses will have to run the race of their life, and California Chrome will have to throw in a clunker. " -- Jimmy Jerkens, trainer Wicked Strong

Like the Preakness, that means value is hard to find unless you go deep into exotics or bet against him.

The Preakness paid:
$2 Exacta (3-10) Paid $18.20
$1 Trifecta (3-10-8) Paid $38.00
$1 Super (3-10-8-2) Paid $173.80

The experts like Wicked Strong (#9) 2nd best because he's bred for the distance and he's been training REALLY well. I didn't like him until this morning...but I've been forced to change my mind due to the overwhelming support from the Experts. I think Ride On Curlin (#5) is the only other real contender here.

That means my sleeper pick (#8 Commissioner) drops to 3rd place where he probably belongs.

Suggested bets:
1st / 2nd / 3rd
$2 Exacta 2 / 5, 9 ($4 bet...or box them for $12)
$2 Exacta: 2 / 4, 5, 9, 11 ($8 bet)
$1 Trifecta 2 / 5, 9 / 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 ($10 bet)
$1 Trifecta 2 / 4, 5, 9, 11 / 4, 5, 9, 11 ($12 bet)
$1 Trifecta: 2 / 4, 5, 9, 11 / 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 ($20 bet with a bit more protection)
$0.10 Superfecta BOX 2, 4, 5, 9, 11 ($12 bet and could pay a lot if Chrome doesn't win...)


Of course you could try to bet against Chrome (serious value here) and do:

$1 Exacta: 5, 9 / 2, 5, 9 ($4 bet)
$1 Exacta: 4, 5, 9, 11 / 2, 4, 5, 9, 11 ($16 bet)
$1 Tri 5, 9 / 2, 5, 9 / 2, 5, 9 ($4 bet)
$1 Tri 5, 9 / 2, 5, 9 / 2, 4, 5, 9, 11 ($12 bet)
$1 Tri 5, 9 / 2, 5, 9 / 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 ($20 bet)


Curious what your thoughts are...

 

Go California Chrome

 

Hmmm...
Been running some numbers.
Betting exotics with a 3-5 favorite is stupid unless you're betting the favorite to come in 2nd or worse.

Because -- unless you have a CLEAR 2nd place choice, you might as well just bet Chrome to win straight up.
Bet $50 to make $30 more and cheer like hell for Chrome to make history.

Otherwise you're spending all this money on losing combinations and you're going to make LESS than 3-5 with LESS chance of hitting it.

 

Watched TVG with my morning coffee.

They are EXTREMELY HIGH on Wicked Strong (#9) and basically say the race is either going to go 2-9 or 9-2...and they can't really see any other outcome.

I had forgotten that Wicked Strong had a terrible pre-Derby experience (he freaked out in the stable, had to leave the post parade, etc) which they think really threw off his day. It's funny -- for all the research I do, I had forgotten to research the moments BEFORE the races started

Could be your best bet: 2-9 Boxed Exacta

 

Is the race on TV live? Channel? Time?

 

Saturday June 7

NBC

coverage begins @ 5:00 eastern

 

The race is at 3:45pm our time...but the whole day is full of great races.

 

Whoops.

That's what I get for listening to the professional handicappers obsessively...so much that I forgot that THEY are gamblers, too...and won't profit if they give away all their picks.

Still, a great day of races and CA Chrome is still the best 3 year-old in the country!