The first Are It True? thread has morphed into an interesting discussion on problems in probability. I have another, but rather than clutter up that thread, I decided to create AIT, Jr.

Suppose you deal out 52 cards in a game of bridge. Before anyone else has looked at their cards, your right-hand opponent (RHO) picks up his 13-card hand and announces, truthfully, that he has an ace. Given just that information, along with enough time, skill, and inclination, you could calculate the probability that he has a second ace in his hand. Let's call this probability P1.

Later in the evening, you again deal out 52 cards in a game of bridge. Before anyone else has looked at their cards, RHO picks up his 13-card hand and announces, truthfully, that he has the ace of spades. Once again, given just that information, along with enough time, skill, and inclination, you could calculate the probability that he has a second ace in his hand. Let's call this probability P2.

Here's the question: How do P1 and P2 compare?

Is P1 > P2?

Is P1 < P2?

Or, does P1 = P2?

In short, does it make a difference if he tells you the suit of the ace that caused him to make his truthful, if stupid (for his side), announcement?

 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by magician
The first Are It True? thread has morphed into an interesting discussion on problems in probability.

 

I hate philosopy

 

I can't even spell it right lol

 

P1 = P2

and Magician. in AIT1 I still disagree with you... you might've misread my post, but lemme go ahead and compose a reply......

 

It isn't philosophy, it's probability (mathematics).

After we get a few more responses I'll chime back in with another post.

 

(after my in AIT1... now I'm insecure about the answer I just gave...)

 

[maniacal voice]He he he[/maniacal voice].

 

I believe that P1=P2 .......

 

since Tokyo_James has got my back, I stand by my answer! (with quaking knees, but still... standing...)