S2000 community,

The weak earnings reports and warnings of lowered revenues/profits ahead is bringing me down.

The slumping market has affected my life totally. My start date's been pushed back to winter and my career's been put on hold. I'm being well compensated, but still, there are no guarantees that there will be a position for me at the firm if the corporations are looking to cut projects.

Any of you Wharton grads/I-bankers/analysts for major banking firms or anything like that that can provide some real insight into what will happen late this year, next year?

Just a little discussion on the US, global economy would be cool. Your predictions, please!

-Space

 

well, i'm no Wharton grad, just a Graziadio (who?) soon to be grad, but i say the turn around won't be until after the 1st quarter of next year. the Fed's loosening of the money supply will have a very positive effect on consumer spending, which in turn with the money multiplier effect will increase business, earning, the wealth effect, and consumer confidence.

that's my take on it, i'm very optimistic about the spending powers of us yanks. hell, we're helping the global economy by spending our way through it.

so let's buy more parts from Mingster! yee-ha! LOL.

 

From talking to some other people, everyone was looking for a fourth quarter turn around this year. Seems like it might get pushed back to the first quarter of next year, just like Mingster suggested.

 

Many speculate that the market "leads" the economy in the US by 3 to 6 months, during a recovery. If so, we're looking at no real growth until 2002.

 

when you have companies reporting earnings that are down 70% from a year ago, you know you have massive amounts of problems.

companies can not can enough people fast enough. nortel is a prime example. the equity markets may rally towards the end of the 4th quarter with the anticipation of growth in 2002, but the economy will probably start recovery in Q2. The remainder of 2001 will be ugly as corporations will see no reason to try and fake real growth... they'll start to "guide" forward in 02. I think that Q1 in '02 will be a "feel it out quarter".

on a personal note, i have friends (associates, VPs) that were recently laid off from Goldman's IB division. i have heard that ANOTHER round of layoffs were announced at morgan stanley. heck, even mckinsey issued a capital call from it's partner's last week. definitely NOT a good sign of a recovering economy.

i think the fed has at least one more cut in it... a minimum of 25bps. who knows... just my .02. this economy sucks!

 

My personal take on this is that we aren't going to have another boom like the past 8 years until another industry offering hits.

My guess on the next new frontier is replenshible energy.....especially in the research sector.


....hey someone save this thread for about 3-6 years to see if my prediction came true.

 

Yea the market defintly needs to hurry up and start to grow again.....I'm waiting to get my yellow stook but my dad said he doesnt want to buy it till the market starts going back up....looks like i'll be waiting a while.

 

Cure for AIDS .
I think the market is going boom when we occupied Mars .
Some one save this thread and wait so see my correct prediction.

 

the current concensus is that we won't see the turn until '02. unfortunately until recently many were predicting latter half of '01 so now the market is adjusting to those revised expectations. it also didn't help that many companies were reluctant to guide down to current economic realities and the phantom pick up in orders proclaimed by numerous companies never materialized and only prolong the pain.

on the bright side spaceneedle, you've got more time for s2k meets and drives. my z06 will be here in a couple weeks. hopefully I can talk rt into a ride in his SC s2k for a ride in the z at the next meet.

 

A good investor makes money when the market is up and when the market is down.