Although those of us in Florida and on up the East Coast have been keeping an eye out for what's going to happen with Katia, it's clear that the real weather over the weekend is going to be associated with TS Lee, now just south of New Orleans in the Gulf of Mexico, where the water is hot, there isn't much in the way of steering winds or shear, and Lee can just do its own thing. The central Gulf Coast and then central Mississippi and Alabama seem to be in line for getting a serious amount of water dumped on them over the next three days. Lee doesn't look to be a wind event at all, just rain, rain, and yet more rain. Because it's moving so slowly, there will be plenty of time for rainfall of the order of a foot or even two to pile up, and the probability of flooding is approaching 100% in many areas. At least it won't be salt water flooding. Unfortunately, it doesn't look as if Texas will benefit from much of this rain.

Whatever happens with Katia, it'll be next week before it does. There's still a chance it could go across (or up) Florida, but it seems more likely to make landfall farther up the East Coast, if it does at all. That, of course, isn't what anyone north of about South Carolina needs, so we can all hope it'll recurve quickly enough to stay out to sea. But that will depend on the behavior of the subtropical high over the next several days. If it weakens on its western end, Katia can get north around it while at sea. Otherwise, someone is going to get a house call.

Although it probably won't happen, there's also a chance that Lee could influence Katia's eventual path by sliding east far (and fast) enough to create a weakness in that subtropical high for Katia to recurve into. Where that might happen, if it does at all, is anyone's guess just now -- we'll know more about all this on Monday, after Lee has drowned holiday spirits and everything else along the Gulf Coast. HPH

 

There isn't much good news in the weather dept of late. I saw the forecast regarding Lee. Very scary.

Hoping Katia stays far away.

 

We've had nearly record highs here in MI and are expecting storms tonight with a drop of 20 degrees. I'd rather be here than down south.

 

We're starting to see tropical clouds now. Rain should be here by late afternoon. Six to ten inches predicted by late Wednesday.

 

It's here - a little earlier than expected.

 

You're getting a far outer rain band, Mike. The center of the storm is about at the SW corner of Mississippi. It looks like a gloomy and wet couple of days coming up. HPH

 

Yeah I know. Those outer bands are sure headed north in a hurry though.

[Carl Spackler]I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite some time.[/Carl Spackler]

 

I had high hopes of Lee coming to Texas! Instead we have 40+ mph winds and wildfires.

 

Stay safe, Mike!

 

I wish you had kept it down there, 'cause it's on the way here and we really don't need three more days of rain.