Market analysis
Originally Posted by ralper,Oct 8 2008, 05:44 PM
It's not exactly that easy, but you've got the right idea.
Originally Posted by boltonblue,Oct 8 2008, 10:14 AM
ok so is anyone else amused at the 'experts' on the financial networks explaining what is happening?
I love it when they 'explain' why the market is trending one way or the other.
It's like explaining why someone is moving when they are having a grand mal seizure.
The other part is these guys talking about the market fundamentals i.e. computer models. These models are essentially useless during a stampede.
I love it when they 'explain' why the market is trending one way or the other.
It's like explaining why someone is moving when they are having a grand mal seizure.
The other part is these guys talking about the market fundamentals i.e. computer models. These models are essentially useless during a stampede.
Originally Posted by ralper,Oct 8 2008, 10:05 AM
I dunno, I think there are lots of buying opportunities right now, if you have the nerve. All of the rich people that I know had the nerve to buy when nobody else did.
Originally Posted by tof,Oct 8 2008, 12:56 PM
< must be an economic moron. I was surprised by recent events. Red, I assume you are rich by now having gone short on the entire dow right before the melt-down.
As for my being rich, I'm not, but we're doing OK. I retired at 47, a tad over 13 years ago, and we've been in and out of the market a couple times over that period. Things are BAD right now, so I'm not certain of any "positioning," but so far we haven't lost any money in the stock market. If you get out when the fundamentals get stupid, you don't take as much of a hit.
Hopefully we're not going to reach the point where canned goods and firearms start looking like good investments.

Regarding the other comments from others, about people making money in the market right now, I'm sure there are people making money, and some are probably making moeny without taking huge risks, but that does require more information than most of us have available (and more courage too). As a conservative investor, the market is just too volitle for me right now, so even though I do see some potential bargains out there, I'm staying out of it. I was watching the ticker today, and some of the prices were making me ill. I could make more money off the dividends of some of the stocks than I'm making from my current investments, and because they're sound companies, it's so tempting that it makes me queezy. My concern is that I don't know how far the credit crunch will reach, and if things get bad enough even the best companies will have major problems. I believe that the market is going lower, and see no solid signs of when a meaningful recovery might begin, so I'm just staying out entirely. I'll be sorry if we see a snap recovery and the market shoots back up to 12,000 in a single high volume day, but I'm really not expecting to see anything like that any time soon.
Originally Posted by 2KIS2K,Oct 8 2008, 07:10 PM
Having the nerve is one thing. All I need is the money to pull the trigger.
It's a little different when your income is entirely a function of your investment decisions. If you make a bad call and take a 50% hit, you have to make a 100% gain on what's left just to get back to where you were before taking the hit. It's a lot harder to pull the trigger when you're dealing with your own money.
Originally Posted by RED MX5,Oct 8 2008, 06:36 PM
Hahahaha, I use to think the same thing. 
It's a little different when your income is entirely a function of your investment decisions. If you make a bad call and take a 50% hit, you have to make a 100% gain on what's left just to get back to where you were before taking the hit. It's a lot harder to pull the trigger when you're dealing with your own money.
It's a little different when your income is entirely a function of your investment decisions. If you make a bad call and take a 50% hit, you have to make a 100% gain on what's left just to get back to where you were before taking the hit. It's a lot harder to pull the trigger when you're dealing with your own money.

Originally Posted by 2KIS2K,Oct 8 2008, 10:22 PM
I only deal with my own money. I still have at least 3 1/2 years of work before retiring. And after retiring I don't plan on pulling my money out of the market.
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