What do you see for future? Near term, long term? The Dow just hit 11K for the first time since 2008. Will it hold, grow, or drop again? Will the 6-1/2 million jobs lost during The Great Recession return any time soon? Over the past year Corp profits are up, can that continue? Near term, long term?

Will investment in research and development in the US kickin anytime soon, or will the bulk of it go to China? Will the new health program boost the medical world? My doctor predicts a shortage of 40,000 GP's due to expected demand. Will the higher taxes and service costs offset overall gains in new jobs?

Will new housing starts kick in anytime soon? Can state and local governments, and school systems, dig themselves out of their budget holes? Near term, long term? How long can people put off buying replacement cars and appliances?

In short, where do you see it all heading? Is this a good time to put more money into the stock market?

I would love to hear your thoughts without turning it into a 'political' discussion.

 

Hi Dave. I can't help but remember how much John enjoyed these discussions.

I think it has room to go up and I her housing sales are on the rise, but mostly in the middle market. the big, expensive houses are still sitting.

 

Dave,

I work for a major utility holding company based in Columbus, OH. You know of a few of the executives. ;-)

Up until today, the management has adhered to the principle that this was an ordinary recession. They expected a recovery, and wanted to keep the employees they had so as to be prepared for the recovery. No raises for a couple of years, bonuses based on company performance were weak, etc. But they were working to retain the hired help.

Today, they announced that they think the company needs to be smaller for the foreseeable future, and are going to reduce headcount by about 10%. Overall demand is down, natural gas prices are so low that gas fired generation is more economical than some of our coal-fired generation, etc.

So for many of us, there is no joy in Muddville.

 

Not much joy in my area either. I'm still a part timer with no end in sight.

Ed, I hope you are not affected by the layoff.

I hear consumer confidence is up a bit, not in our house. Major purchases are still on the back burner.

I'm glad we are recovering some of what we lost in the market. Maybe now we can retire at 84 vs 85.

All kidding aside, I'm not changing my strategy as far as our IRA's are concerned. I'm still working on flipping the equity to fixed income percentage. I'll stick with a larger % in conservative investment. It may not be what the experts recommend for someone in our age group, however, I'll sleep better that way.

 

Your questions to many subjects concerning the market are questions many people are asking at this time. Anybody who says they know the answers is making an educated guess. My guess is you might as well be in and stay in because over time the direction of the market is up.

As an old man who just last week bought another S2000 because due to heart problems I figured this might be my last hurrah I will give you some of my experiences and you can make of them what you want.

I do not trust wall street executives period. Why - During the oil boom - bust period I was a regional manager for a large oilfield equipment company. We were called into our corporate office in Dallas and given orders to cut salaries about 10% and we could work out who got what cuts as long as it came to 10% overall. It was further stated that your cut would come from your bonus which noone else got. Well guess what - my bonus was bigger than the year before due to their way of figuring them.

I have become less than happy with the market in general as it appears to me that my company Fidelity and your company Vanguard are doing little if anything to try to stop the big companies from just what I mentioned above. Is it because they, the top leaders, don't want to rock their own bonus boat?

I have moved away from vanilla funds and am buying stocks in companies that I trust with about half of my money.

If you want to take a chance with a little of your money buy TAT Transatlantic Petroleum. You are actually buying the man behind it who is a young billionaire who made his money in Texas oil and gas and is now going overseas with his money to drill small deals that the majors can't be bothered with. At this time I am up over 100% but the only people that are buying it are oil people. Why? Because he has spent a lot of money moving equipment overseas and hasn't shown any profit yet. If you called your broker about it he would probably call you nuts for even thinking about it.

 

^^
The oil patch is fickle mistress indeed, good luck with TAT! I remember those good and extremely bad days, very well!

 

Thanks, Lainey. I won't know for about 6 weeks, one way or the other. But there's nothing I can do either way. Whatever happens, happens.

 

Ed, I heard Carl English is planning to retire, has he announced it? Ed, I suspect you are fine.... hang in there.

Bill, I couldn't help but think John would have been the first to reply. Damn shame, 64 is way too young.

I wish I could be more optimistic. I set goal to invest more after May 1st. I realize the Dow is up due to short term Corp profits - in geneal caused by labor savings. But most of the predictions I hear suggest new housing starts - slow, new hiring/calls backs - slow, taxes - up, service costs - up, R&D to China, state/local/school budgets - slow and in general weak demand for consumer goods which drive the whole thing. I do agree with the idea of the business cycle, what goes down, comes up. I'm just too stupid to understand how wall street can keep climbing without long term substance behind it.

 

Good to see you posting, Jim (Reichard). Glad you are living life to the fullest with your recent S purchase. As for the stock market/economic outlook, I try not to be too concerned about things I have little to no control over. I lost quite a bit in the downturn along with most everyone else, but I'm the eternal optimist. I have held back larger sums of money from the market lately, although I still have my smaller monthly allotment going to my investment account. It's not under the bed, but it is sitting in my checking/savings accounts until I figure out what I want to do with it. But I'm fortunate in that at least I have some money to think about investing. My best wishes to those of you in a not-so-good place right now.

 

[QUOTE=dlq04,Apr 15 2010, 12:28 AM]I do agree with the idea of the business cycle, what goes down, comes up.