sunilseru

^ Thanks, cthree.

75% of my position is more than 1 year old. So if I take profits now, it wont make sense for me to get back into it above ~110. Not sure how big this pullback is going to be. I think AAPL will go much higher in the long term.

But after looking at today's jump on the battery news, it looks like we might see a pretty big pull back. It is getting a bit silly now. I am quite sure that this battery stuff will blow up... With that kind of a screen, I would be surprised if it even lasts 6 hours in the real world use. The slightest of bad news will drive this thing down. Guess we have to wait and see.

cthree

^ That's been the thesis and it's not something people aren't expecting. Every trader on Wall Street expects it to take a nose dive post release.

I realize that it "seems" like a dumb idea to sell something you bought at $60 only to buy it back at $110 but you aren't thinking about it clearly. You are buying something back for $110 that you sold for $125 a week earlier. Yes this increases you overall basis but that's just an illusion anyway since all of your gains are unrealized.

Consider a 100 share position. If you sold 50 at $125 waited a week and then bought those same 50 back at $110 you would not only still have 100 shares but you'd have a realized gain of $750. If you did nothing you would have exactly what you started with 100 shares with no realized gain; in other words you would have left that money on the table, it gone.

On the other hand, if I were sitting on those shares I'd be selling half this week and leaving it at that. Remember, half of the value of that stock came out of your pocket which means half of it is still at risk. I'd take my money off the table and let the rest ride and invest that capital elsewhere. Your AAPL position is now 100% risk free. Let it ride and forget it. Put the capital to work on the next big thing. The name of the game is making the most money with the least amount of capital risk. Don't be a pig.

sunilseru

^ cthree, I see what you are saying. I applied this strategy to NVDA and that did not work in my favor. The more I think about it, I think AAPL is going to take a big hit after the iPhone launch. Saw the ads again yesterday and I have a feeling that text input is going to suck. I am going to reduce my position. Thanks for your contribution to this forum.

cthree

Think of it as taking profit. I sold some AAPL today and I'm down to about 40% of what I'd consider a full position. That leaves me with with room to load up when the price is right for buying. If AAPL gets hit you want to buy it. If it doesn't, you want to buy it. Either way it doesn't matter. iPhone will be a massive hit there is no question about it, none at all. It's way bigger than even the hype, it's just not bigger than the hype this month. It will take a number of years for it to fully mature. There is Europe and Asia and the rest of the world to unroll. There is 3G and a whole host of things people haven't even thought of. The competitors will try to match it but come up short, just as they do in the PMP market.

Think about it. If you can't make a PMP better than an iPod after 5 years of trying what possible hope do you have of making a better iPhone? None. MSFT's response to iPhone will be iZune. Been there, done that. Have you seen the software on a Motorola phone lately? Anyone notice that Dell is selling the Nokia N95 for $800? and $599 is too rich?

We're playing the volatility surrounding the launch here, we're not talking about AAPL as a long term core position which it should be in every portfolio. The beauty of AAPL is that it's fairly easy to trade around. It's a little extra cha-ching above and beyond the huge growth of the company and stock. A couple times a year jobs will get on stage and people will speculate about all sorts of things and the price will go all over the map and this is a great time to trade it.

sunilseru

I have no doubts about the long-term success of this thing, or the iPhone series of products I should say. I mention text input because I do believe that it is going to be bad and one or two tech reviewers will definitely point that out - that I think is enough to drive it down temporarily. One other reason for some to complain would be the slower internet connectivity. These I think will act as temporary hurdles to the stock. I sure am going to load up when it comes in. Apple will definitely make more models/variations. They might even offer a CDMA version later, who knows.

Heck, their ad campain impressed me so much that I even considered moving away from Sprint and Windows mobile. I love win mobile and never thought that there will be a day when I would consider dropping it

sunilseru

I sold half of my position expecting a post iPhone release sell-off. Am I screwed now?

cthree

Screwed how?

wantone

I'm shorting AAPL at $130 now

sunilseru

well, it keeps going up. When will I get the opportunity to get back in? I thought I might be able to buy back some of my position before they report later this month.

martha

Ouch.