Solar Energy stocks ?
05-06-2007, 05:20 PM
#21
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Originally Posted by TR-S2K,May 1 2007, 01:38 AM
Thinking about overall investment strategies, I will reduce my solar energy stocks down to 30-35% with 4 companies: TSL, STP, SPWR and JASO. 55-60% of total saving in a single sector of any industry is too risky, even that sector potentially has large return the next few years.
Now back to solar. Solar is hot but I honestly don't know how hot it will remain of for how long. When it goes down it will crash and burn, not a 5% downturn, a 50% or more downturn. It's just too speculative for me and I can't predict when the crash will happen because it won't be economic but a random political whim. I never do well on long shots so I'm staying away.
11-07-2007, 11:40 PM
#22
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Originally Posted by TR-S2K,Apr 29 2007, 07:51 PM
...
These four solar power company stocks may increase much more than S&P500 the next month(s), quarter(s) and the next few years:
Friday close: FSLR $59.79, SPWR $59.55, STP $37.73 and JASO $26.38. SP500 1,494.07
All these four companies are profitable companies, but the trailing PE ratios are high at 55 or higher. But forward PE is as low as 16, it means they are growth companies and their stock prices will reflect their potential future earnings.
We will see how these four companies are stacking up against S&P500 by the end of next week and at the end of May. I will buy some JASO and SPWR shares the next few days if the price is right (if either stocks are lower a few percentages).
I understand that to get higher reward I would also get higher risk. If I am looking for 10-15% return per quarter I would also willing to loose 10-20% per quarter. There is no such thing as high reward and low or no risk.
These four solar power company stocks may increase much more than S&P500 the next month(s), quarter(s) and the next few years:
Friday close: FSLR $59.79, SPWR $59.55, STP $37.73 and JASO $26.38. SP500 1,494.07
All these four companies are profitable companies, but the trailing PE ratios are high at 55 or higher. But forward PE is as low as 16, it means they are growth companies and their stock prices will reflect their potential future earnings.
We will see how these four companies are stacking up against S&P500 by the end of next week and at the end of May. I will buy some JASO and SPWR shares the next few days if the price is right (if either stocks are lower a few percentages).
I understand that to get higher reward I would also get higher risk. If I am looking for 10-15% return per quarter I would also willing to loose 10-20% per quarter. There is no such thing as high reward and low or no risk.
11-07-2007, 11:54 PM
#23
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Congrats to those who made $ in the solar run. This is not the time to increase your holdings are start new large positions, to do so goes against every single fundamental of disciplined investing I know of. I've gone through SPWR in detail, probably more so than most of those who own the stock. The evalulation might be good against its peers but the recent run up is completely out of control and makes Chinese stocks look uneventful and safe. The company's actual earnings are pretty small and any negative talk from the gov't directly or indirectly will send these stocks down 20-30% before you are able to hit "sell". Long term they have immense potential but bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. It usually doesn't take a very deep look in the past to see it. cthree already touched on it.
11-08-2007, 05:18 AM
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TR-S2K: Have you become more diversified in your holdings beyond just solar since you first posted this? Are you taking some profits off the table along the way here and there or just holding?
I got in SPWR about 1 yr ago on a flyer and it has since grown into my largest single holding. I keep telling myself I will take some money off the table, but I have not yet. I was one of the ones telling you to diversify in the spring, and here I am not heeding my own advice...
I'm also in WFR as of June 07, which while not a pure solar play, still has a pretty reasonable valuation and excellent upside.
Andrew
I got in SPWR about 1 yr ago on a flyer and it has since grown into my largest single holding. I keep telling myself I will take some money off the table, but I have not yet. I was one of the ones telling you to diversify in the spring, and here I am not heeding my own advice...
I'm also in WFR as of June 07, which while not a pure solar play, still has a pretty reasonable valuation and excellent upside.
Andrew
11-08-2007, 06:19 AM
#25
I am just learning about the stock market, however I am a big tech geek. One thing I can point out is that there are pretty significant increases in solar tech that should be going into production in the next year or two. One is a bio-based solar cell that has about the same output as the standard cells used today, but for less then a 20th of the price.
Another tech that is coming out is a new type of solar cell that while expensive right now, is WAY more efficient. Currently the best solar cells have an efficiency of around 23% (these numbers may be off now as they are what I remember from an article I read early this past summer) with the new solar cell achieving over 80%. The prediction is that this technology should be out by 2010 and will make solar plants a much more potent force in the power industry.
edit: I am currently looking for the articles (I believe they were linked from engadget.com) as to find specifics as well as the companies that are producing the technologies.
Another tech that is coming out is a new type of solar cell that while expensive right now, is WAY more efficient. Currently the best solar cells have an efficiency of around 23% (these numbers may be off now as they are what I remember from an article I read early this past summer) with the new solar cell achieving over 80%. The prediction is that this technology should be out by 2010 and will make solar plants a much more potent force in the power industry.
edit: I am currently looking for the articles (I believe they were linked from engadget.com) as to find specifics as well as the companies that are producing the technologies.
11-08-2007, 07:01 AM
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I, as an electrical engineer, find the 80% efficiency figure pretty hard to believe. Maybe at one specific wavelength, but who cares? I'd love to see the articles.
- Warren
- Warren
11-08-2007, 08:30 AM
#28
It appears that I may have been combining things in my head (I apologize). I had read these two articles the same day when doing some research into solar panels and probably combined them in my head. Also the date is not what I remembered.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/16/spectro...ent-solar-cell/
Not where I originally read it, but the same letter all the same.
http://www.weregreen.com/community/solar-p...olar-cells.html
http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/16/spectro...ent-solar-cell/
Not where I originally read it, but the same letter all the same.
http://www.weregreen.com/community/solar-p...olar-cells.html
11-08-2007, 11:17 AM
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The articles basically say the product doesn't yet exist, and many experts feel that it probably cannot work in practice.
I wouldn't hold your breath. Getting a photovoltaic cell to 80% efficiency is essentially impossible. It would be one of the weirdest materials you'd ever see: so black that it essentially reflects no light at all, of any color, and oddly never becomes warm, no matter how long you let it sit in the hot sun.
It may be interesting research (though I suspect it's more just a waste of time), but it's certainly nothing investment-grade at this point.
- Warren
I wouldn't hold your breath. Getting a photovoltaic cell to 80% efficiency is essentially impossible. It would be one of the weirdest materials you'd ever see: so black that it essentially reflects no light at all, of any color, and oddly never becomes warm, no matter how long you let it sit in the hot sun.
It may be interesting research (though I suspect it's more just a waste of time), but it's certainly nothing investment-grade at this point.
- Warren
11-11-2007, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by cthree,Apr 29 2007, 05:09 PM
Dude, it's great you are keen on green and all but are you really ready to bet half your savings on an industry which hasn't proven it can turn a profit and relies on govt. subsidies to stay afloat? I think you should consider the economics and realize that if commercially viable solar power generation is some ways down the road many of the pioneers will be killed off by natives before then.
You're cruisin' for a 2000 style bruisin'.
You're cruisin' for a 2000 style bruisin'.
OVERpriced.
Buy some underpriced latin america telecoms....when they hit bottom.
NIHD
AMX
http://www.smartmoney.com/pricecheck/
investing is my second business. I would also take a look at
ARD
COSWF.PK
anyway...long term I think NG and coal are much better bets. Proven technologies and are abundant and cheap. When peak oil hits the fan...we will need some replacement.....and I believe NG is the next hot spot.....or coal. If we liquify coal or compress NG its higher usage of those fuels (higher demand) although we are already passed peak NG in the USA and canada....if we go to electricty we mainly burn coal and NG...and we will in the future as well. Solar is too expensive right now and way too speculative IMO. I think a small exposure is good....but buy when they are underpriced...Like I did with my STP investment.
ethonal was the last speculative buying spot.....and sustainablility and speculation never go hand in hand.
Good luck.....and I would start shorting solar stocks soon....or atleast hedge yourself.