What do you think is the next bubble?
05-03-2008, 09:28 PM
#12
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I personally think that a lot of people are going to get there chesnuts roasted over an open fire in the mined commodities markets.
One thing that you can count on with commodities - Producers will race to produce, and shoot themselves in the collective foot. It takes less time with some commodities (ag) than others (mining) but it ALWAYS happens. I think that the commodities that take longer to adjust production levels (rubber, olives, iron, coal) have the most potential for pricing wackiness that I think of as "bubble" type stuff.
I guess you should buy gold two years ago, and sell it pretty soon.
One thing that you can count on with commodities - Producers will race to produce, and shoot themselves in the collective foot. It takes less time with some commodities (ag) than others (mining) but it ALWAYS happens. I think that the commodities that take longer to adjust production levels (rubber, olives, iron, coal) have the most potential for pricing wackiness that I think of as "bubble" type stuff.
I guess you should buy gold two years ago, and sell it pretty soon.
05-04-2008, 01:14 PM
#13
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Some of the food companies Jim Cramer is nuts for like YUM sure look scary-high to me since raw material prices are only going up. How long can they continue raising THEIR prices or cutting back portions?
05-04-2008, 02:26 PM
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YUM has a little different game plan, that's mostly an international growth story. Look for meat prices to start increasing very rapidly as cattle/chickens are sold as they are no longer profitable with the given grain prices.
However, nothing lasts forever and the instant a few people think so, there is your bubble.
However, nothing lasts forever and the instant a few people think so, there is your bubble.
05-06-2008, 12:40 AM
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Compared to rice, soy beans, and many others oil and nat gas is proportionally cheap. The run up is substantial but it's not extremely parabolic like rice for example. There will be sharp pull backs within the next 3-6 months if not sooner in several, wheat is already pulling back. World populations aren't slowing down and plays like ADM etc. will continue to be strong over the long haul I think. The MON/POT group is in a similar situation with more specific markets.
05-06-2008, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by lOOkatme,May 5 2008, 01:45 PM
When peak oil hits and we start seeing declines within 5 yrs....and prices go to 8-10-12-15-20 something a gallon....we will build like crazy.....and since they can be built quickly....and be put everywhere and anywhere.....we will see solar explode IMO.
We're in for a shit storm. I can only hope it's still years away. But increasingly, it looks like it's right upon us.
But, I will continue to try to profit from it. Nothing like making money on something that's likely to destroy the economy in the long (or even short) run.