THE SCENT OF SPRING IN FEBRUARY FOR ENGLAND
Tues Feb 19 2002 00:45:46 UTC
DAILY MAIL

BIRDS are opting not to migrate, lawns are continuing to grow and frogs are waking up weeks early.

The natural world, it would seem, is in a state of utter confusion.

According to the calendar, Britain should be trying to shake off the winter gloom.

But unusually warm weather has kicked off the earliest spring in recorded history. Temperatures between January 13 and February 12 were the warmest since records began in 1659, averaging 8-10c compared to the normal 4-6c. Scientists observing the activity of trees, plants and birds reckon nature is approximately three weeks ahead of itself.

With newborn lambs already gambolling among the daffodils, the picture is a happy contrast to spring last year, which was marked by the sorry sight of a lamb stranded in a quagmire in Norfolk, unable to be moved because of foot-and-mouth restrictions.

Nick Collinson, of the Woodland Trust, said: 'Spring is usually regarded as starting at the beginning of March but this year it has been the middle of February. All sorts of species are responding.

'We are calling it 'the winter squeeze', with a longer autumn and an earlier spring. January was exceptionally mild, except for the first week or so.

'There's absolutely no question there is something going on when you see the figures for the last 30 years.'

Mr Collinson said he had had reports of gardeners in southern England who have had to mow their lawns throughout the winter.

Birds like the blackcap and chiffchaff were staying in Britain in ever greater numbers for the winter rather than migrating to Africa, he said.

Flowers such as the lesser celandine and coltsfoot were already starting to bloom, hawthorns were budding and elders were in leaf.

The National Trust gardens in Trelissick, Cornwall, are opening early next weekend to take advantage of the warm weather. Visitors will be able to wonder at the beautiful purple and white bloom of a rhododendron harrissi which has been tricked by the warm weather into flowering early.

Last week the Daily Mail reported how the mild weather was prompting thousands of frogs to take to the ponds of southern England to start the mating season early.

But while many people will welcome spring's early arrival, it could have a serious downside.

Research in Oxfordshire has shown that some birds could struggle to find food if they start to nest earlier. The insects which make up their diet are much slower to respond to the warmer weather and so are not available so early. Similarly, trees which respond quickest to the warmth may in the longer term force out those which react more slowly.

Rats also favour warmer weather and breed in greater numbers during mild winters.

'We suspect there will be all sorts of knock-on impacts, many of which we don't yet know about,' said Mr Collinson.

Weather expert Philip Eden calculated the temperature data and compared it with figures from the last 342 years.

He said: 'If you compare that 31-day period with the historical records, it falls way outside anything we have seen before. It's a hell of a difference if you think about it. It adds to growing evidence that global warming is a reality. These types of temperatures could be the norm in the future.'

Last October was also the warmest on record with temperatures of 14c compared to the normal average of 10c.

Scientists meeting in Boston last weekend heard that global warming will continue for the next 100 years, even if the use of fossil fuels is dramatically reduced.

Professor Robert Dickinson, of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said temperature increases of up to 5c can be expected over the next century.

 

Even in my short lifetime (32 years) I have noticed the winters feel milder.
I can't make my mind up if this is a good thing though.