View Poll Results: Should the contestant stick with his door, or switch?
Stick with his original door, but it's close
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Interesting logic problem
Joined: May 2002
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Originally Posted by magician,Oct 18 2005, 12:26 PM
I knew that.
I'm a physic.
I'm a physic.
When I simulated, I got 70% win rate with a switch. When I didn't switch, I got a 32.5% win rate. That's just about right, statistically...
As im fixing it im starting to understand why im wrong.
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From: Yorba Linda, CA
Originally Posted by JonBoy,Oct 18 2005, 01:06 PM
You mean "psychic"?
(Several years ago there was a TV commercial in the US in which, at one point, a man makes an observation of something patently obvious, a woman - presumably his wife - asks how he knew that, and he replies, "I'm a physic [FIZZ-ick]." My wife and I have adopted the practice in appropriate circumstances.)
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From: City
after playing with this site, http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtm...MakeaDeal.html
I think I've changed my mind about how this problem can be thought about. Your first choice is choosing a door hiding a goat. Your next choice is choosing a door with the prize.
You are more likely to pick a goat than a car, so first, choose a door likely to contain a goat, 2:3 chances you are right. Of the other two doors, the one with the other goat is tossed out for you, so the last door must be the prize 2 out of three times.
Your first pick is very likely a goat, and once the other goat is eliminated, chances are 2:3 that the remaining door holds the car, given that you had a 2:3 chance of picking the goat the first time.
I think I've changed my mind about how this problem can be thought about. Your first choice is choosing a door hiding a goat. Your next choice is choosing a door with the prize.
You are more likely to pick a goat than a car, so first, choose a door likely to contain a goat, 2:3 chances you are right. Of the other two doors, the one with the other goat is tossed out for you, so the last door must be the prize 2 out of three times.
Your first pick is very likely a goat, and once the other goat is eliminated, chances are 2:3 that the remaining door holds the car, given that you had a 2:3 chance of picking the goat the first time.
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