From a large pool (sufficiently large so that removing any one sample does not affect the odds, so figure millions+), 1/6 of a the sample are printed "winner" and 5/6 are printed "loser". I realize that, whether I examine 1 or 10000 samples, the odds of any given sample being a "winner" is 1 in 6.

However, I've been trying to figure out the liklihood of getting a sequence of random additional samples that are consistently printed "loser". In other words, if I take 10 random samples, what is the probability of all 10 being printed "loser". My initial thought was that it was (5/6)^10 = 16.2%, but that doesn't seem right. The corrolary would be that all 10 being winners is 0.0000016%, which leaves 83.8% probability that you will win some and lose some.

Thoughts? Spare me from having to dig up my god-awful prob/stats book.

PS - this is not a strictly hypothetical question. Thanks.

 

[QUOTE=WestSideBilly,Sep 16 2004, 07:40 AM] . . . the odds of any given sample being a "winner" is 1 in 6.

 

So my numbers for the extreme cases were right, albeit using an incomplete equation.

Thanks, Bill. Wasn't sure if you were still floating around here.

 

wtf is this WSB

 

My pleasure.

 

my head hurts...

 

good stuff. i miss the days of trying to figure this shite out.

 

[QUOTE=WestSideBilly,Sep 16 2004, 10:40 AM] PS - this is not a strictly hypothetical question.

 

They could be lying.

 

lying sack of shit