Probability question.
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Joined: May 2001
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From: Nowhere
Originally Posted by magician,Sep 17 2004, 02:46 PM
In that case your analysis is, frankly, stupid. And shame on you for not giving the rest of us all of the pertinent information so that we could address the problem properly!
You used P(W) = 1/6, which is true for normal people; i.e., everyone else.
You should have used P(W) = 1/6000, which is true for incredibly unlucky people; i.e., you.
In that case the probability of 14 losers in a row is (5999/6000)^14 = 99.77%, a reasonable value in your case.
You cannot expect to get reasonable results when you start with faulty data.
You used P(W) = 1/6, which is true for normal people; i.e., everyone else.
You should have used P(W) = 1/6000, which is true for incredibly unlucky people; i.e., you.
In that case the probability of 14 losers in a row is (5999/6000)^14 = 99.77%, a reasonable value in your case.
You cannot expect to get reasonable results when you start with faulty data.
