Interesting, why do you say that?

Edit: Good explanations wantone.

 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by SilverKnight

 

Yes that is true. Kinds of weird but in one my classes a few years back as an undergrad studying law, there wan actual study done on how many casualties the U.S. would accept if we went to war with diff nations. On thte top of the list was Taiwan, it said that our country would be willing to lose 14,000 soldiers if China ever invaded. I don't remember the details but it was pretty interesting.

 

While some will argue that China's only intention to want Taiwan is to gain closer access to the Pacific Ocean, I have this to say... for what? Look at China and look at the Chinese around you. We're just not confrontational people!!! When was the last time China went out and conquered another country? They're resource rich already and frankly serves no purpose in doing so. So if China does gain closer access to the Pacific, so what? You think China will immediatley launch an assault to a country that's providing it jobs? China's smarter than that! It's all about $$$ my friend! And as long as countries continue to provide China with the contracts, the jobs, the technology, China's just going to stay put.

 

I wasn't thinking so much in terms of US casualties as Chinese casualties .... if the US hit with air strikes, smart bombs, etc., etc., as they have done in the past, they would be hitting some very heavily populated cities. They would also have many more cities to break than they had in Afghanistan or Iraq. The loss of life on the Chinese side would be huge. With the way in which news is reported these days, pictures and video of this loss of life would be splashed all over the press ..... would the American public back an administration that was prepared to kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Chinese in this way? I personally don't think the public would accept it.

 

The next war will not be a war with weapons... rather, it will be a war of wit and money!!!

 

Excatly, so many large U.S. companies are already invested in China. The FDI growth in China is amazing. China to go to war with taiwan would be economic suicide. Strnager things have happened though, and although moving to democracy, there is still not full freedom in China. The govt still makes business decisions and does not let the free market decide. I'm in time that old regime will be totally gone.

 

I agree that China's economy is going to surpass the USA by 2020.

Look at the prices of raw steel lately... China bought up all the scrap steel the US had laying around (and I do mean all), so just about any product that uses steel, is seeing an increase of around 9.5%.

Prices on mattresses went up 5-20% depending on the brand, and prices on bed frames (almost 100% steel) went up 15%.

They're becoming a huge powerhouse when it comes to manufacturing.

 

By and large foreign companies that have invested in China so far haven't made a nickel. the people that are making money are Wal-Mart and Chinese people associated with the military and CPCC. Be careful of MBA balderdash that instructs everyone to put their money into a nascent slave labor economy with overheated GDP growth. When the mainland does modernize, the labor, trade, and investment situation will be mercilessly re-arranged, and political unrest may resurge. The sheer amount of corruption involved with production in China will be the major obstacle for them to clear if they want to modernize. It's just not as simple as you guys, or Bill Gates for that matter, make it out to be.

China has joined the WTO and in 2008 will host the Olympics. From Taiwan's perspective, this is the window for their opportunity to declare independence and it won't be open much longer. China realizes that if it lets Taiwan slip by, it will likely lose Tibet, Xinjiang, etc. too. It will be a major loss of face for them and they dread that more than anything else imaginable. With these facts being true, and the U.S. currently finding itself entangled in the War on Terror, there is an element of uncertainty that will make the next few years a critical time for cross-straits relations. If China attacked Taiwan, it's likely the EU would be opportunistic cowards who would watch for a tidal shift before taking sides.

Finally, the EU is facing a long decline in productivity since 1990 that will be exacerbated by a demographic shift over the next 50 years. The prospects for the US over the same period are much brighter. China may well rival the US for economic dominance in the next few decades but it is far from a fait accompli. Technologically there is nowhere that can rival the U.S. economic output - what you may see superficially are a lot of Euro and Asian consumer products, but the nuts and bolts of those products, the financing to create them, and the intellectual property that is licensed to make them, all are strong industrial export industries of North American companies.

 

My take on this subject matter is deeply rooted in my upbringing. I was born in Taiwan, grew up in the States, and now travel frequently to both Taiwan and China for business.

1. Taiwan's military is compulsory, all males over the age of 18 must participate in the armed forces unless you get a doctor's note or if you're the child of some high officials (always happens).
a. They have a lot more than 15 planes, although how many exactly I don't know but I'm sure google will tell you. Taiwan's Air Force is comprised of modified F-16A (spec to C in electronics) and Mirage 2000s from France - nothing to sneer at. They also have a few squadrons of IDF developed internally, and a boatload of F-5E and F-104 (retired from front line service).

2. China's position on Taiwan is not an economical one, nor is it a strategic military one - it's one of nationalism and pride. Taiwan (Formosa) has been in the hands of the Spanish, the Portugese, the Dutch, the Japanese, and finally after WWII it was officially returned to China, but of course in 1948/49 Chiang Kai-Shek lost his civil war and fled to Taiwan, hence the situation today.

3. The last time Chinese attacked/conquered foreign lands was when a guy named Ghengis Khan led the charge. Chinese is a multi-racial nation, which may surprise many people, but I've said many times there are Caucasian Chinese. Mongols are considered a Chinese ethnicity.

4. The last time Vietnam and China had border clashes, Chinese PLA kicked the snot out of the Vietnamese - of course both sides' accounts are quite different, and no western observers (that I know of) were present during the conflict, but based on what I read it was a one sided war.

5. China also had border clashes with India, and there was no clear "winner" in that one. Both countries are now nuclear powers, and restraint has been practiced for the past few decades.

6. China will attack Taiwan if indeed Taiwan's government declared independence. However, popular polls show that less than half the population actually supports independence, and over 70% supports "status quo" - if you read Chinese check www.chinatimes.com or other Chinese news source from Taiwan for reference.

7. The US will most likely NOT help Taiwan should it declare independence - it's always been against US policies, but this also depends on who's the sitting president. The Bush family has very strong ties to some of China's high ranking central government officials, I cannot reveal my sources but I believe it is true.

8. Taiwan depends on mainland China a lot more than mainland China depends on Taiwan. A simple economic sanction by China will (in a matter of years) strangle Taiwan's economy. Please see Asian Wall Street Journal for reference.

Lastly, I think reunification is inevitable, but only when Taiwan's people feel ready to embrace their cousins across their pond. China will one day be a super power, and eventually it would be too lucrative for Taiwan not to accept China's invitation back to the fold.

There are distinct cultural, language, and social differences between Taiwan and China, but the common language is what ties them together at this point, and that tie, IMHO will be tighter as time goes on.