The topic of China is discussed abundantly in my MBA classes since of course China will be an economic power house and will surpass the United States by 2020 or quicker. Also several of my profesors go to China to teach Business classes at a University in China. Because of this I've been following Chinese news and learning about different FDIs and other investments we have over their. Sucess in the future will rely on China. It is the place to be if you want to be a sucessful company. Read the "Road Ahead" by Bill gates for a good read on this. Recently the Taiwanese President has been re eleted and he of course is strongly against China. China is afraid that this will happen under his watch and has used threats of force if this happens. Of course if this happens, the U.S. will protect China and all hell breaks loose. I doubt China will do this because its economy is now so globally tied espicially to the U.S. A war would cause economic suicide to its country. I'm sure this seperation will happen soon. Not to familiar on the subject but its pretty interesting.

I know there are several Chinese members on this board who are more familiar with this topic. Do you think China will go to war? Will this seperation ever happen? Just an interesting question for the night.
BTW Taiwan has a small military. In a recent air show it had like 15 jets in its airforce.

 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by SilverKnight

 

china no way in the world would surpass the us as a global commerce leader by 2020.

china's economy is growing it is no where near the u.s's.

japan might be able too but they're far behind the u.s

cali alone is a commerce powerhouse itself.


i'd like to see china attack taiwan and punish its bastard child. but most likely it wont. n never will. last time mainland china attack taiwan was during the manchus

 

Dunno why any country or wannabe country (china, taiwan) involved would risk economic ruin from such a confrontation at this point in time.

Both Taiwan and China are doing insanely well (economically) with the status quo. Tension there may be, but with the money rolling in I think they are happy to have the current level of separation.

Now if economies go south...


/from taiwan

 

China will be the biggest auto consuming and manufacturing country in the next few years, so I've heard.

 

and how would you know that?

 

If the U.S. and China got into a war, there's the end of the world. Both are nuclear powerhouses and two most powerful military forces in the world. There's the 3rd world war and the end of the world.

 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Purple_sky
If the U.S. and China got into a war, there's the end of the world.

 

lol are you serious? Go take some business classes or even read the WSJ. The U.S. is turning into a service nation. All we will do is provide services. Look around you, what now is made in the U.S? computers, TVs, Cell phones. None of those, wake up man. We are in a trade deficit. We not take more than we export out. We are heavily relying on other countires for goods. Even our combat jets are not made in the U.S anymore. Chinas GDP is growing at a tremendous rate, I belive it was 9% this 1st quarter. The govt is now trying to clamp down due to fears that this could cause high inflation and out of control growth such as the Asian crisis in the 90s. Deny it or belive it but China will be an economic superpower. Followed of course by the EU. The U.S. unfourtantely is being left behind sad to say. Like I said by 2020 or sooner. Think about a nation of over 1billion people being modernized? That is insane.

Oh and in a war, China would get its ass kicked by the U.S. Vietnam took out thousands and thousands of Chinese in a border war in the late 70s. Yes Vietnam!!
China doesnt have the training, technology that the U.S. does. The training and war experiance we are getting now is crucial and we def hold an advantage against any other country in that. Most importantly..........They have no Navy. They have old antique subs which our destoryers and frigates would have a feast on.
All they have is endless supplies of men and jets. Even that can last only so long against the sidewinders and phoenix missles of F-14s, F-18s, etc.

 

Here's my take since I have offices in both. Highly unlikely Taiwan will go to war with China.

1. Taiwan does not have the military might China has.
2. Taiwan is uncertain whether U.S. will back them.
3. Taiwan has major investments in China and depends on her for exports.

Finally, and this is just my opinion, if China's economy does surpass the US's, chances are Taiwan will be but a small spec and China might, at the end of the day, say to Taiwan "Yeah just keep your lil' island"