FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.
Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months before the June-November season begins.

The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.

"Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two."

Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.

The predictions are not always on the mark. Gray initially forecast nine hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and later lowered that prediction to eight. Only six hurricanes formed.

Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical Atlantic explained the difference, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and the lead author of the forecast. Cooler temperatures inhibit hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.

The team also predicted nine hurricanes for the 2006 season, when only five developed. Klotzbach said that in seven of the past nine years, the team correctly predicted whether the season would be above or below average.

Is there anything you would care to add or clarify based on your thoughts and observations? More importantly, did you ever get around to buying a generator?

 

The CSU team put out a forecast last winter, and then they updated it with new numbers in early April -- that's what's in the article above.

AccuWeather has also issued its own seasonal outlook, somewhat fuzzier than the CSU one but largely consistent. NOAA's seasonal outlook is due (based on past years) sometime in the next couple of weeks, although they've vowed to downplay these seasonal outlooks this year.

Although it looks to the world as if all of these groups are seeking free publicity (and that does indeed happen), it's also true that the only way to develop a credible forecasting techinque is to make your experimental forecasts public and then analyze the results of those public forecasts, taking your lumps as you go. That's what the CSU group has been doing.

It's also true that none of these groups pretends to have a spot-on technique -- they all know they have to live with substantial error bars. The CSU group has had some success in this context -- they have a much better-than-random rate of predicting above-average and below-average seasons (despite the failures of the past few years).

Because all these folks do this more or less full-time, I have no reason to second-guess them.

But I did indeed buy a (small) generator, and a camp stove and lantern; and we got improved window protection and a stor-proof garage door installed as well -- not for this season, necessarily, but for the inevitable storm of the future. HPH

 

Something I'd like to add...I'm glad I live north of the railroad tracks.

We managed to get a small generator and a chain saw from FEMA in the aftermath of Katrina. And I would like to personally thank every tax-payer on this forum for that. They made a very bad situation almost tolerable.

Good luck this season to all of us who live in the atlantic states and on the gulf coast, and especially to Dr. Cloud and our other friends in south Florida.

 

Could be another "interesting day" weather wise here in central Texas!

 

Tof

Yep, understand about the RR tracks. We didnt get near what you did, but got

hammered pretty good none the less. Our biggest fear is the tornado's that

spin off, we had several during Katrina that came very close to us. This is

why im building a Med style house with cinder blocks and stucko. Blocks will

be filled with cement and re-bar, roof will have hurricane straps that will be

bolted into the blocks. God knows we dont want another Katrina, im not taking

any chances. If you have never be thru something like that, you cannot imagine

what its like.

 

Here's a good source for building safe rooms and buildings.

Texas Tech Wind Science & Engineering Research Center.
www.wind.ttu.edu/

 

You are welcome. When our next volcano erupts, I expect the favor to be returned.

 

No problem Mike. I'll even come up there and pitch in on the recovery...if you let me have some of that great coffee you guys make.

Doc, normally its the tornados we really worry about as well. Most anything that can be blown away by your typical hurricaine wind is already long gone or is temporary. That 30' storm surge during Katrina was quite a surprise, though.