End of an Era
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 34,130
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From: Canton, MA
Originally Posted by boltonblue,Feb 13 2008, 09:38 PM
i hate to say it but oil is about to get real expensive and of course gasoline is a byproduct of oil.
the US imports 400 to 425 million barrels of oil a MONTH.
of course the US is an industrialized nation with ~300 milllion people.
that's around 1.5 barrels per person per month.
now let's look at China and India which are evolving from agrarian economies to industrial economies. this will take 10 to 15 years to complete this transition.
China has ~2 billion people.
India 1.6 Billion.
assuming the metric of 1.5 barrels per person per month.
that would be a staggering 3 billion barrels a month
and that is just for China. throw in another 2.1 Billion barrels for India.
obviously taken to this extreme this doesn't work but even at half that rate that's a billion barrels of oil a month and that doesn't even count the US consumption.
assuming that the law of supply and demand still applies, it would not be surprising to see oil at 500 or 600 dollars a barrel.
that would put gas at the pump at numbers approaching $15- $20
hmmm i don't think I can afford a buck a mile toys.
the US imports 400 to 425 million barrels of oil a MONTH.
of course the US is an industrialized nation with ~300 milllion people.
that's around 1.5 barrels per person per month.
now let's look at China and India which are evolving from agrarian economies to industrial economies. this will take 10 to 15 years to complete this transition.
China has ~2 billion people.
India 1.6 Billion.
assuming the metric of 1.5 barrels per person per month.
that would be a staggering 3 billion barrels a month
and that is just for China. throw in another 2.1 Billion barrels for India. obviously taken to this extreme this doesn't work but even at half that rate that's a billion barrels of oil a month and that doesn't even count the US consumption.
assuming that the law of supply and demand still applies, it would not be surprising to see oil at 500 or 600 dollars a barrel.
that would put gas at the pump at numbers approaching $15- $20
hmmm i don't think I can afford a buck a mile toys.
If you dig around, you can find a post or two of mine from about a year ago that said pretty much the same thing.
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Joined: Oct 2007
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I would rather live in my car than give up gasoline. You want to reduce CO2, do it in your own home. Household energy consumption is just as much at fault for Carbon dioxide as are internal combustion engines, yet to fix your home energy usage would be a much easier, less expensive, less tumultuous endeavor than reconfiguring the auto market.
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