Fear of the Future
The attendees at the World Economic Forum sure paint a dismal forecast due to Technology. What do you think?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/everyo...093614163.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/everyo...093614163.html
I have no fear of the future. I think the ride so far since I can remember from the 60s has been awesome. I'm disappointed that some things haven't progressed as fast as we might have expected (space exploration for example) but the development of technology and its apparent accelleration has been nothing short of amazing and awe inpspiring.
Every once in a while I think back to when I was a kid then realize that "Hey, this is the future -- we're here! What's next???"
I ain't skeered.
Every once in a while I think back to when I was a kid then realize that "Hey, this is the future -- we're here! What's next???"
I ain't skeered.
What we seem to have here is a group of very smart guys trying to predict the future, relying in large part on knowledge in fields that are outside their area of expertise (economics). The Internet is littered with predictions made in the past that simply did not pan out. The course of history in both its macro and micro forms is a complex thing where tiny events, unexpected and unaccounted for, influence outcomes in ways that no one foresees. A Nobel prize does not automatically confer expertise in other disciplines upon the laureate. Linus Pauling and William Shockley are two examples of prize winners who went on to engage in some very bad science.
This doesn't mean that planning is a waste of time or that we shouldn't be concerned about trends that seem to have very serious negative short term effects. We know, for example, that certain resources are finite. When faced with a predictable future shortage of those resources, it makes sense to start looking for alternatives and to conserve what remains. But I just cannot muster up much confidence in the kinds of predictions Shiller is making.
This doesn't mean that planning is a waste of time or that we shouldn't be concerned about trends that seem to have very serious negative short term effects. We know, for example, that certain resources are finite. When faced with a predictable future shortage of those resources, it makes sense to start looking for alternatives and to conserve what remains. But I just cannot muster up much confidence in the kinds of predictions Shiller is making.
Forget space exploration! Where is my flying car?











I'm pretty much a day-to-day person, so que sera, sera!

