Market Watch 2018
02-09-2018, 07:37 AM
#81
While I agree we are NOT in a bear economy, the stock market does what it does. Too often good economic news is considered bad investment news. The sharpies on wall street are always trying to look around the corner and figuring out what today's news means tomorrow. From all I have read and heard the big factoids that are clouding the crystal balls on Wall Street are:
Labor costs (which are rising and will contribute to higher inflation)
Interest rates (which are low, and have been for a crazy long period, and will go up due to both the pressure to raise them and the anticipated increase in the rate of inflation)
Federal Budget (Just added a new higher limit to their borrowing to compliment the increased spending anticipated for the military and "social programs" which means the fed will be issuing even more bonds at the new, higher rates that we have been reading about)
Foreign affairs (be they wars, trade disputes, immigration problems, or just plain old competition with other countries the world economy becomes a bigger influence on our market every day)
Consumer spending and confidence (The fear factor is at a high level. If high fear results in less spending, as it often does, then we will see a drop in corporate sales and profits in the coming quarters)
Political BS (of which I cannot speak)
Labor costs (which are rising and will contribute to higher inflation)
Interest rates (which are low, and have been for a crazy long period, and will go up due to both the pressure to raise them and the anticipated increase in the rate of inflation)
Federal Budget (Just added a new higher limit to their borrowing to compliment the increased spending anticipated for the military and "social programs" which means the fed will be issuing even more bonds at the new, higher rates that we have been reading about)
Foreign affairs (be they wars, trade disputes, immigration problems, or just plain old competition with other countries the world economy becomes a bigger influence on our market every day)
Consumer spending and confidence (The fear factor is at a high level. If high fear results in less spending, as it often does, then we will see a drop in corporate sales and profits in the coming quarters)
Political BS (of which I cannot speak)
02-09-2018, 08:31 AM
#83
Add to your list that there is also a new fed chair.
It is expected his policies will not necessarily align with those of his predecessor.
It is expected his policies will not necessarily align with those of his predecessor.
02-09-2018, 09:14 AM
#85
Moderator
While I agree we are NOT in a bear economy, the stock market does what it does. Too often good economic news is considered bad investment news. The sharpies on wall street are always trying to look around the corner and figuring out what today's news means tomorrow. From all I have read and heard the big factoids that are clouding the crystal balls on Wall Street are:
Labor costs (which are rising and will contribute to higher inflation)
Interest rates (which are low, and have been for a crazy long period, and will go up due to both the pressure to raise them and the anticipated increase in the rate of inflation)
Federal Budget (Just added a new higher limit to their borrowing to compliment the increased spending anticipated for the military and "social programs" which means the fed will be issuing even more bonds at the new, higher rates that we have been reading about)
Foreign affairs (be they wars, trade disputes, immigration problems, or just plain old competition with other countries the world economy becomes a bigger influence on our market every day)
Consumer spending and confidence (The fear factor is at a high level. If high fear results in less spending, as it often does, then we will see a drop in corporate sales and profits in the coming quarters)
Political BS (of which I cannot speak)
Labor costs (which are rising and will contribute to higher inflation)
Interest rates (which are low, and have been for a crazy long period, and will go up due to both the pressure to raise them and the anticipated increase in the rate of inflation)
Federal Budget (Just added a new higher limit to their borrowing to compliment the increased spending anticipated for the military and "social programs" which means the fed will be issuing even more bonds at the new, higher rates that we have been reading about)
Foreign affairs (be they wars, trade disputes, immigration problems, or just plain old competition with other countries the world economy becomes a bigger influence on our market every day)
Consumer spending and confidence (The fear factor is at a high level. If high fear results in less spending, as it often does, then we will see a drop in corporate sales and profits in the coming quarters)
Political BS (of which I cannot speak)
There's uncertainty right now, and once this gets shaken off, I suspect the back half of the bull will go wild leading to the euphoria. If this is the start of a bear market, it's the least euphoric in my memory (bearing in mind that I was kinda paying attention to the world around me in 1980).
That said, I think Bill's point on foreign affairs is probably the point of highest uncertainty. On 1/3, the European central bank implemented another round of regulations. Everything that could be predicted was priced in. Everything that couldn't be predicted is weighty uncertainty.
https://www.esma.europa.eu/policy-ru...d-ii-and-mifir
I also see the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince bin Salman's
02-12-2018, 12:00 PM
#86
It went up pretty good during the day, today, but now it seems to be falling back a bit.
02-16-2018, 08:19 AM
#88
Yup. Early last week i was wishing i moved more out of equities. Today I'm glad I didn't.
02-16-2018, 11:00 AM
#89
Community Organizer
I still don't think that we should be resumping this MELT UP. The scary part is that we could just keep going up from here. Problems I have with this is there are short term and long term trends. Once we get to mid 2018 at 2,750 on the S&P we are at the cross over point. Long term Ceiling and the short term bottom. We are now above the long term trend line ceiling but right at the short term ceiling. It just makes me very uneasy about the potential of a correction which would re-set things.
There is just now so much artificial propping up of stock prices. Low interest rates but that's going to end but they are now off setting that with this lowering of taxes to bring back cash to the US. Companies can then buy back their stock in droves upping the stock price even more! Setting up for an even harder fall in the future I fear.
Call me pessimistic here but I guess I just don't trust things are as rosy as things are portrayed. Even if they aren't it may still have gotten some artificial legs to run on.
Best title I just saw:
U.S. consumers didn't really care about last week's chaotic stock market sell-off
American consumers are apparently not worried about stock market volatility.
According to the University of Michigan’s report on consumer sentiment for the first half of February, worries over the stock market sell-off that rocked markets last week were scarce.
When everyone things things can't go anywhere but UP and nobody is worried.......it's the time to WATCH THE F*CK OUT!!!
There is just now so much artificial propping up of stock prices. Low interest rates but that's going to end but they are now off setting that with this lowering of taxes to bring back cash to the US. Companies can then buy back their stock in droves upping the stock price even more! Setting up for an even harder fall in the future I fear.
Call me pessimistic here but I guess I just don't trust things are as rosy as things are portrayed. Even if they aren't it may still have gotten some artificial legs to run on.
Best title I just saw:
U.S. consumers didn't really care about last week's chaotic stock market sell-off
American consumers are apparently not worried about stock market volatility.
According to the University of Michigan’s report on consumer sentiment for the first half of February, worries over the stock market sell-off that rocked markets last week were scarce.
When everyone things things can't go anywhere but UP and nobody is worried.......it's the time to WATCH THE F*CK OUT!!!
02-21-2018, 11:30 AM
#90
It's hard to tell Jim. The market seems to be pretty comfortable in the current range.