OK, campers, there's a new Tropical Depression way out in the eastern Atlantic, headed west and looking to develop into a Tropical Storm, at which point it will be named Dean.

In honor of our distinguished (or perhaps extinguished) CO, we ought to have a little guessing game about just when this momentous event (the naming) will occur.

The National Hurricane Center puts out regular advisories four times daily, at 5 am/pm and 11 am/pm, all EDT. (They also do irregular special advisories, and I suppose it's highly likely that Dean will be christened in one of those. Fitting.)

There's also the question of whether Dean will become a hurricane and, if so, how strong. And, of course, where he's headed is of great interest to some of us.

Any guesses? HPH

 

Whew, I thought this was going to be a bunch of in a hot tub!

 

[QUOTE=ajlafleche,Aug 13 2007, 09:29 AM]Whew, I thought this was going to be a bunch of

 

That TD is way out there -- are you going to put a closing time on your pool entries?

 

If we are talking about Tropical Depression # 4 currently located at 12N 31.6W as of 11AM EDT then I'm gonna say 9:15 PM EDT today this thing goes TS and becomes "Dean".

 

I'm watching Flossie ........... I have several friends in HI!

 

Well, if I do that, then I'll have to come up with a prize and I won't be able to provide my own forecast (as distinct from a guess).

So far, it's TD4 -> TS Dean at 2115 on 8/12. (tof) [This implies a special advisory, if it's EDT.]

The NHC has it as TS Dean as of 2000 on 8/12, but their intensity forecasts are pretty lousy.

I'm going to cheat and wait for the 5pm advisory. HPH

 

Ahem...shouldn't that be 8-13-07.

 

ok I'll go for the 5 a.m. tomorrow advisory. That 8/14 for Raymo's sake.

 

Yeah, well, one of those days.

Weather forecasting is, after all, an uncertain science.

The good news is that they've shifted the long-range track slightly northward, so it'll head for Georgia now. Whew! HPH