Austblue

AusS2000

No, but putting your money in property will always be a better bet than in cars.

Fact is, interest rates are at an all time low. Combined with the first home buyers scheme and you've got a lot of renters becoming buyers. This has artificially raised the price of housing as well as lessened renting.

Looking into my crystal ball (Ok, so a Muz shift knob that I have spare) I see a rise in interest rates (it's not like they could drop much more) and a number of the more ambitious first home buyers being turfed out onto the street. The market gets flooded with homes. Everyone who could afford 6% already has one so there are few buyers. Prices drop.

I'd be waiting for this scenario before buying. Doesn't mean you should keep the S. Means you should be building your deposit elsewhere. Maybe invest in a few dot.coms!

RedRover

Yes, I understand it is very difficult to get started. It's very hard to get your foot on the first rung of the ladder. The State Governments are mercilessly ripping off home buyers with grotesque amounts of stamp duty and it is the Stamp Duty that forms the largest component of the "deposit gap".

The Sydney area is wildly over-inflated and out of proportion with the rest of Australia. However, nobody can predict how that market might perform in the future let alone give a guarantee.

A cool calm analysis might say that the Sydney market is overheated, but that market has a long history of defying economic logic. I'm inclined to think that prices may stabilise rather than 'burst' and descend but my prediction is just as uncertain as anyone else's.

The dilemma is, as Alister said, "you can't hold out forever". It's like a surfer sitting on his board out the back waiting for the 'right' wave. If you sit there too long you never get a ride.

So, what to do? There is a definite trend for Sydney & Melbourne first-time buyers to go and buy a property in Adelaide or Hobart in order to make their first entry into the real estate market but this may not be the right answer for you.

An article from to-day's Age might provide a little background

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/09/...2902055543.html

AusS2000

Austblue is down south. What is the property market like down there?

I guess with the Sydney market boiling over the outer regions must have climbed as well. If you can find that region that hasn't yet escalated, but still has good rental returns let me know.

MyYellowHonda

Beautiful car.. just hope it goes to a very rightful owner

DavidM

NO! Definitely not.

hehe, that's what they said 5 -6 years ago :-) I go by a simple rule with 'property investment' - invest as soon as you have the money. I have never seen anyone make money by 'waiting' or not investing.

ps. I just seen some recent statistics:
- POroperty value has been increasing at around 22% per year for the last 6 years.
- Over the last 6 years the property value went up around 160%.
- Property value increase over last 30 (or was it more) years is at a more modest 15% per year.
- In the 6 years prior to the last 6, the property value went down 6% over that perior of time (not per year).

Lats pf all, look at any persiod of time and look at the value of property. Then look at the value of propery 15 years before that and that will 'always' be a lot lower.

Taking the above stats alone impies that anitime you buy, you will make on average a 15% gain in value per year if you do hold on to the property for at least 10 years.

Also it implies that at wost you will loose 6% (total) if you buy at the 'worst time' and hold on to it for only 6 years.

So the risk of loss over 6 years on a $200k inverstement is $12k if you hang on to it for at leats 6 years. No big loss for anyone weilling to buy a new S2000 and pocket the $30k loss over 4 - 5 years. At the same time a propery will guarantee you 15% return per year if you hang on to it for a longer persor of time 15+ years.

The only risk (as far as I can see) is if you buy and cannot hang on to it for at least 6 years. If you buy today and need to sell tomorrow (or even in a year or two) then there's a chance of big loss (even 50%). The only people who loose in property investment are the ones who "need to sell".

pps. I'm not property investment guru, so above is just my obervations and that's all.

DaveFromSydney

[QUOTE]Originally posted by DavidM
[B]NO! Definitely not.

hehe, that's what they said 5 -6 years

Austblue

Started another post for investment discussion guys. Dont get me wrong I really appreciate the advice and discussion that has come about I just didn't think that this thread was the best place for it.

I know that I said feel free to post your feelings but Id rather keep them within earshot of the primary topic within this thread

Austblue

Man Im anxious! It hasn't even been a week yet and Im already pissed that it hasn't sold! Selling something you love is not easy!

cashout

I am not looking forward to selling mine in a few months time (DEC-JAN) before moving back to OZ.

Good luck with the sale.

If I was moving back now I'd PM you.