Aberdeen
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Joined: May 2002
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From: Survivalist enclave
I don't work in the industry unless you count a bit of team-building but I'm not so sure. Every now and again there are major changes to the way the world operates and there are some fascinating forces at play here.
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Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 33,838
Likes: 23
From: Sunshine Coast - England UK
I've been through several of these cycles, and not too worried yet. Back in 1999/2000 it was around $10 and yes it got bad but it bounced back and companies adjusted. It's the small operators who've taken in big jobs who are going to get hit hard.
I'm not convinced on this $60 break even in Aberdeen. A lot of that is cost which will slowly come down in line with oil price, such as contractor costs / numbers, equipment hire (drilling rigs are millions per day) and the government will have to look at their cut. What they get from oil is scandalous throughout the supply chain.
I'm not convinced on this $60 break even in Aberdeen. A lot of that is cost which will slowly come down in line with oil price, such as contractor costs / numbers, equipment hire (drilling rigs are millions per day) and the government will have to look at their cut. What they get from oil is scandalous throughout the supply chain.
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 7,653
Likes: 4
From: The Beautiful South
I've been through several of these cycles, and not too worried yet. Back in 1999/2000 it was around $10 and yes it got bad but it bounced back and companies adjusted. It's the small operators who've taken in big jobs who are going to get hit hard.
I'm not convinced on this $60 break even in Aberdeen. A lot of that is cost which will slowly come down in line with oil price, such as contractor costs / numbers, equipment hire (drilling rigs are millions per day) and the government will have to look at their cut. What they get from oil is scandalous throughout the supply chain.
I'm not convinced on this $60 break even in Aberdeen. A lot of that is cost which will slowly come down in line with oil price, such as contractor costs / numbers, equipment hire (drilling rigs are millions per day) and the government will have to look at their cut. What they get from oil is scandalous throughout the supply chain.
I'm really not sure where BP get their prediction of ~$50 oil for the next 3 years from.
Shell used to have a department whose sole reason for being was to predict oil prices. After several years of abjectly failing to do this, Shell disbanded the group, concluding (correctly in my view) that there are too many unpredictable events which influence oil prices.
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 11,504
Likes: 241
From: Sunny Norf*ck
This wouldn't be the same place would it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3RF3nbreBE
Aberdeen, Aberdeen, prettiest town I've ever see;
women there don't treat you mean, in Abilene, my Abilene.
No I thought not
Aberdeen, Aberdeen, prettiest town I've ever see;
women there don't treat you mean, in Abilene, my Abilene.
No I thought not
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 385
Likes: 1
I live about 20 miles east of Aberdeen City centre and over the past few years it has been getting more and more unbarable!
The traffic and the cost are all getting too much for me, not to mention the jumped up twats wandering around like they own the place because their cousins brother got them a job on a rig and now they earn top dollar, ken!
Luckily I'm far enough out to not have to deal with it all the time, but the village I stay in is now a 'commuter town' apparently, so it's getting worse as well!
As for the oil, I'm in the industry (not North Sea though) and the only people who are moaning at this point are those who have a 5 bed new build house and the shiny audis mentioned earlier! The people that have spent their money and are up to their eyes in lease deals and mortgages!
The traffic and the cost are all getting too much for me, not to mention the jumped up twats wandering around like they own the place because their cousins brother got them a job on a rig and now they earn top dollar, ken!
Luckily I'm far enough out to not have to deal with it all the time, but the village I stay in is now a 'commuter town' apparently, so it's getting worse as well!
As for the oil, I'm in the industry (not North Sea though) and the only people who are moaning at this point are those who have a 5 bed new build house and the shiny audis mentioned earlier! The people that have spent their money and are up to their eyes in lease deals and mortgages!
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 5,853
Likes: 4
From: London/Surrey - UK
That's it, they been living the dream without preparing for bad times...
Chap I worked with is now in Nigeria because he couldn't find a job down here and got desperate, not the nicest places to be!
Chap I worked with is now in Nigeria because he couldn't find a job down here and got desperate, not the nicest places to be!
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 31,181
Likes: 58
From: Hertford
Originally Posted by MB' timestamp='1421311956' post='23468854
I've been through several of these cycles, and not too worried yet. Back in 1999/2000 it was around $10 and yes it got bad but it bounced back and companies adjusted. It's the small operators who've taken in big jobs who are going to get hit hard.
I'm not convinced on this $60 break even in Aberdeen. A lot of that is cost which will slowly come down in line with oil price, such as contractor costs / numbers, equipment hire (drilling rigs are millions per day) and the government will have to look at their cut. What they get from oil is scandalous throughout the supply chain.
I'm not convinced on this $60 break even in Aberdeen. A lot of that is cost which will slowly come down in line with oil price, such as contractor costs / numbers, equipment hire (drilling rigs are millions per day) and the government will have to look at their cut. What they get from oil is scandalous throughout the supply chain.
I'm really not sure where BP get their prediction of ~$50 oil for the next 3 years from.
Shell used to have a department whose sole reason for being was to predict oil prices. After several years of abjectly failing to do this, Shell disbanded the group, concluding (correctly in my view) that there are too many unpredictable events which influence oil prices.
Indeed; black swan events & political machinations...
Best guess is low prices until the frackers have mostly gone bust.
Low oil prices until the US/Russia situation unfolds.
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