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Would you trust scary advise?

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Would you trust scary advise?

 
Old 12-17-2014, 01:59 PM
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Default Would you trust scary advise?

My friend of mine who is a VP of Bank of America who's also takes part in the economy and financial advisor told me to get out. I asked him what he was talking about. He started telling me how the recovery is weak and even a load of crap. He continued saying that any bear market or steep decline would basically crash the market. Which, he says, a crash could happen by September of 2015. Now, its a huge claim but he's given me info that constantly came true. He said banks are lending and spending worse than 2008. He told me that this also is the reason why there have been so many suicides by banking executives, CEOs and others. One of his good friends actually was on of these victims. He basically packed up and is ready to move to South America. What do you guys think?
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Old 12-17-2014, 02:40 PM
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I would listen to scary advice and see why the person is afraid.

As best as I can tell, there's a number that shows that stocks are overvalued. . . but where does that number come from? How is it derived?

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Old 12-21-2014, 09:39 AM
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I would be precede with caution. I am very cautious with my investments. & more invested in tangible investments (like real estate). But I also believe too many people overreact. If he shows me some indicators, than id be more likely to believe him.

Also banks are not lending like they use to. I'm in capital services for CRE. Banks are not lending the way they use to. The underwriting is much more difficult now than in 08.
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Old 12-22-2014, 05:49 AM
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I've always thought about asking something like this, but not sure if the question would come across correctly. I'll try and see where it goes:

Do you think we deal too much with the 'numbers of now'?

for example: At 10 AM on day X, the jobs report comes out for December It says XXX,000 jobs created. Market reacts... In February, the day X report is amended, its now YYY,000 jobs in that month TWO months ago (or 3 or 4 - irrelevant to the point). Market reacts. Bob said this - market reacts. Bob retracted - market reacts.

Is there too much reaction to things that are just really noise to the situation?

disclaimer: I have some investments in the market - not much. I do have my 401K. I just see an America where many people worry about the 1 day gain, and that the market has to be up day after day after day, and not the long term goal.
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Old 12-22-2014, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Heyitsgary View Post
I've always thought about asking something like this, but not sure if the question would come across correctly. I'll try and see where it goes:

Do you think we deal too much with the 'numbers of now'?

for example: At 10 AM on day X, the jobs report comes out for December It says XXX,000 jobs created. Market reacts... In February, the day X report is amended, its now YYY,000 jobs in that month TWO months ago (or 3 or 4 - irrelevant to the point). Market reacts. Bob said this - market reacts. Bob retracted - market reacts.

Is there too much reaction to things that are just really noise to the situation?

disclaimer: I have some investments in the market - not much. I do have my 401K. I just see an America where many people worry about the 1 day gain, and that the market has to be up day after day after day, and not the long term goal.
Well half the market movement is based on total BS, peoples perceptions on world or localized events. It’s a numbers game, but there is still the human component that drives it. We could see a total crash, just because people got scared and pulled out, not based on anything but false news or perception, and then the legitimate reasons too of course. False news is exactly what happened to kick off the great depression in the 30’s. Some big ass banker (JP Morgan?) decided it would benefit his bottom line and monopoly take over to spread false rumors in the paper about banks being short so not all people would be able to access their money, that created a wide spread pandemic of people literally the next day all lining up outside their local banking intuitions to try and pull out their cash, and of course no bank in the world carries enough on hand to cover everyone at one time ( its not how banking works) so the rumor created the very shortage he announced and the banks fell under with no federal support back in those days. JP was able to buy up all these little banks pennies to the dollar like any fat cat business tycoon, and then later go in with a few other bankers to sell the Feds on the creation of the private owned Federal Reserve banking we are under today. It’s really a tricky and rather immoral game that I choose not to be apart of. I hate banks/credit game and I hate how our market works.
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Old 12-22-2014, 10:43 AM
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Timing is everything in the maret. Ideas change as the facts change so you have to be flexible with your own thinking.
Bears are always na saying and they are eventually right, then wrong, then right..its an up and down thing, the market.
There are many vp's at BofA, wonder what the others are thinking? The market has been and will continue to be a great place to put your money, make money, and there is always some stock that does better than another, sector, etc...
I would listen to myself, or try listening to Jim Kramer?
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