Ok, I guess I'll offer my views and try to make them short.

First off, the Taliban is not poor. I have heard that they are the world's #1 producer of opium. Nice followers of Islam, huh?

I don't believe we will ever indiscrimnately bomb Afghanistan. We will first use all available political pressure to try to force one of the major power brokers in the area to get Bin-laden for us.

If that doesn't work, than the Northern Alliance will be asked to go on the offensive. We will help them achieve a few stunning victories, possibly retaking Kabul. The Taliban may reconsider turning him over to us if they fear losing control of too much territory.

I really hope we don't try to capture him with our own SpecOps guys, I fear most would not come out alive. The Taliban, while in the mountains, is a extremely tough opponent for small unit operations. They did alot of damage to the Soviet Spetsnaz units (special forces) in the USSR's last adventure there.

If we must capture him ourselves, it will require a force structure entailing several infantry and Airborne divisions. We will get him but It will cost us.



As far as the Geopolitical situation is concerned, the US has always tried to keep the balance of power in the area. Pakistan Vs. India, Iran Vs. Iraq, Afganistan Vs. the Soviets. It was a very effective strategy for quite some time. We ended the Gulf War to "save" Sadaam so he could continue to oppose Iran. Oops.

Time for a new strategy, I believe.


My thoughts on Pakistan:
They will offer us some initial support, allowing us to base our operations in country. They will not offer much good intelligence though. Most of the Pakistani intelligence community is pro-Taliban.

The Government will probably be overthrown or inundated before long. Of course, this will then bring a major conflict with India in the coming years

If we're lucky the 900 million Indians will keep all the Fundamentalists busy while we ponder our new strategy.

Anyone want to comment on why the Russians are not being too helpful at the moment?

 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Moneeb
[B] Sunchild - how can you be so confident when you say this? Look at your statement - look how STRONG it is. You say there is NO possible way to support this assertion.

 

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Sunchild
[B]Yes, I'm sure.

 

Let's not forget that a small group of Britons are currently held captive in Afghanistan accused of 'Promoting Christianity'. One can only only hold terrible fears for their fate if it is The Taliban who will decide it. There is no accomodation with this ideology other than total acceptance that their way is right. Their 'Holy War' if it comes will draw no distinction between man woman and child; all are infidels. Those responsible for the New York and Washington outrages have to be brought to justice. There is simply no other acceptable outcome that The West should even consider. Of course we have to be careful John David. The West is already walking on political eggs in it's dealings with the countries which make up the 'State Of Islam'. A 'Holy War could indeed become reality and innocents will then indeed suffer in their thousands. That has always been the price of our freedom anyway. We should not shrink from that threat. It's interesting that the U.S. is offering to wipe off $35 billion of debt owed by Pakistan in return for their 'co-operation' in this crisis. No doubt there will be similar incentives offered to other countries for their assistance also. It may well be the good old U.S. dollar which overcomes religious zeal in the end.

 

Well, why not? Bin Laden doesn't think America helped him win the war against the Russians. He thinks "his boys" did it themselves, and showed the world that both the superpowers are paper tigers. He thinks he proved this in his campaign against America in Somalia, where he thinks American soldiers showed that they never had the stomach for ground warfare. How do you reconcile that with the claim that America facilitated the Taliban's current regime? As I said above, America is accountable for infusing money and training through Pakistan's ISI into Afghanistan in order to protect America's interest in halting Russian expansion. No more, no less. The fact that the rebels turned that aid into an oppressive fundamentalist regime is not America's doing in any way, shape or form. This is my point.

 

The more I read stuff like this, and Reuters news such as junior officials in the Taliban goverment fleeing Kabul, the more I'm convinced of one thing:

The Taliban is about to have the 2nd largest army......in Afganistan.

 

I'm also wondering what will happen afterwards

 

I have to chime in here...

First,
The US is not going to make the same mistakes the Russians made. We will not bomb the hell out of the population. We will not go after the families of the terrorists. This is going to be a snake hunt. This is going to be a secretive surgical strike against known terrorist organizations. The DoD is not telling anyone anything. Everything is treated as Secret or Top Secret information. All I can get out of my Army aviator friends is things are beginning to happen, i.e. watch the news over the next few weeks.

Second,
The CIA might have created the Taliban through training and arms supplies, but it was our naivet

 

This morning on breakfast TV, GMTV interviewed one of 'Bin Liners' supporters in Birmingham (UK).
He said there were about 50 people which he knew of (including himself) who would support the Afghanistani people if a holy war was declared and Afghanistan was attacked.
He said they would use financial and physical support if necessary.
With idiots like these in every civilised nation around the globe the scope for random savage violence on innocent people is huge and frightening.
This is why these people must be stopped at all costs.
The problem is doing it without creating more martyrs to their cause.
How we do this I do not know exactly.
What I do feel is that we must kill all the people responsible for this atrocity and the people who keep them safe.

The sad fact is that the war against terrorism may probably never be fully won. This is a sad fact we must face up to.

 

only for a short period of time, then no army at all.