dlq04

Bill, the first 20 minutes of this show plus the the end of the show, when they return to the topic, starting at 1:10 minute marker make really good points when it comes to the future of the internal combustion engine!!

tof

The demise of the IC* piston engine has been predicted since the 60s when everyone said we would be driving turbine powered cars by the 80s. (Flying, turbine powered cars?) In the 70s we were all going to be driving Wankel engines by the 90s. Since the introduction of the GM EV1, the story has been that we will all be driving electric cars soon. Meanwhile, the good old reciprocating internal combustion engine soldiers on, getting better every year. Meanwhile, Nissan is developing its recently announced variable compression engine technology. jalopkik article Meanwhile, BMW continues to improve it's variable valve lift system that requires no throttle. Meanwhile, every car company with a name ending in a consonant is diving head first into turbocharging. Meanwhile, battery technology continues a slow, if steady grind forward and full electrics have enough range to make decent commuters but can't make a good road trip without frequent stops at recharging stations that may or may not be close to points of interest along the way.

To paraphrase Samuel Clemens: Reports of the IC* engine's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Don't get me wrong. Someday carbon abatement will dictate that we all drive electrics, powered by kilowatts generated by carbon-neutral plants. That is, unless we figure out a way to capture all the carbon generated by the combustion process. But I think that day is a ways down the road.


*When I see ICE in a car forum I immediately think In Car Entertainment.

S2KRAY

I know I'll be gone. I'll be 106 so I want to be buried in whatever ICE car I own so no one else can have it.

Legal Bill

Ohhh. Look who thinks he's too good for acronyms...

DavidNJ

I wouldn't worry too much. Let's look at the reality.

1) With current technology, gasoline with modern technology can produce about 9-11 kW-hr net power per 6 lb gallon. This will be readily apparent with the new 48V mild hybrid technology that is advertised as 70% of the benefit for 30% of the cost. It is on the new Audi A8, upcoming A6 and A7, new MB models that will be introduced in the US in the next few years, etc. For electric, it is about 100 lb of lithium-polymer battery for the same effect.

2) The battery doesn't create the energy, it just stores it. Very few areas of the world generate enough electricity to power large numbers of electric vehicles.

3) A wealthy suburbanite can park their Tesla in their garage and charge it on a $1500 rapid charger. Not everyone has that...most people don't. A drive through virtually any area of NYC will show bumper to bumper street parking, usually of older cars showing the signs of urban auto warfare. The charging distribution architecture simply doesn't exist.

4) Charging times are long. Tesla has charging stations that are up to 140 kW, and even that is described as a gratuitous 170-mile range in 30 minutes. The home charger, for those that can afford it, is 17kW. For comparison, I add 330 miles to my 12 mpg Infiniti QX56 in 5 minutes or so.

5) Where does the electricity come from? The solar panels and windmills favored by the folks promoting electric vehicles are intermittent, requiring expensive and inefficient energy storage (MIT's Sadoway has yet to get his liquid metal batteries to a commercial level) or complete redundant conventional energy generation. There is one solar concentrator design that uses molten salt but has yet to work reliably in a commercial application. Power plants typically have very long lifetimes, with US reactors now mostly over 40 years old.

6) There is an abundant supply of inexpensive gasoline and petroleum products...enough for 200 years or more. There is about a 20 year supply of lithium in known reserves.

7) These things are still very expensive. A Bolt's MSRP is maybe 60% more than an equivalent sedan. Only Tesla has tackled an SUV, and that is a $100+k car and small. SUVs are the heart of the market, to the point that Ford is discontinuing the Fusion without a replacement and moving Focus production to China.

8) The only thing driving this is ground-swell to stop carbon combustion whose product when working properly is CO2. When combustion is incomplete it creates NOx, SO2, and CO and particulates, what traditionally has been called pollution, now choking Chinese cities and used to choke US cities. However, the science behind CO2 being an approching calamity is bogus and it over time, in science, the truth wins out. Sometimes it takes a while; Ptolemy's astronomical measurements lasted 1400 years. This tilting at windmills has spent some money and caused some disruption (e.g. electricity rates in Germany), but has never amounted to a measurable change and the movement should move to fringe status over the next 10 years or so. Einstein said his general relativity would have been right whether or not Eddington's measurements of the 1919 eclipse proved it. This science is barely a step ahead of Michael LaCour and maybe a step behind cold fusion.

However, manual transmissions are not long for this world. They are going the way of manual chokes, hand turn signals (automated turn signals were an option for GM in 1939), or driver controlled ignition timing.

boltonblue

An interesting irony is electric cars are ideal in a city environment with lots and lots of stop and go, inching forward traffic.
And yet, unlike suburban garages attached to the house, very few city dwellers have their own parking place with available electrical capability to charge their cars.

cosmomiller

CNG (already well established in Asia) is a real game changer. You can use it with gasoline engines in place. You can switch from gasoline and CNG underway. Very clean and cheap. Safe.

Hydrogen is also a big game changer. Lots of energy and you don't need to have long "recharge or refill" times and no infrastructure re-makes.

All electric vehicles are politically driven. That electricity is going to have to come from somewhere. Sooner or later the bill is going to come due.

dlq04

If anyone took the time to listen to the top notch engineer, Don Runkle, in the video I posted you would see a $200 equalivalent tank of electricity can not compete with 7 cents of gasoline. (think I got that right, its been a few days since I watched it) Nuff said.

In case you don't think he's qualified, consider this:

Current:
President, Runkle Enterprises; Advisory board, Tennenbaum Capital Partners LLC; Advisory board, PowerGenix; Director, Lean Enterprise Institute Inc.;
Member, Board of Directors, Via Motors Inc.; Engineering Advisory Council, University of Michigan; Director, WinCup Inc.; Advisory board, General Fusion; Advisory board, Tula Technology; Executive Chairman, Board of Directors, Ioxus Inc.; Independent Director, Lear Corp.

Prior:
Vice President, North American Engineering Center, General Motors; Vice President, GM-Energy & Engine Management Systems, General Motors; Chairman, Autocam Corp.; Chairman, EaglePicher Corp.; Director, Environmental Systems Products Inc.; Director, Asia Automotive Acquisition Corp.; Member, advisory Board, ActaCell Inc.; Executive Vice President, Delphi; Vice chairman and CTO, Delphi; President, Delphi Energy & Engine Management Systems, Delphi; Member, North American Executive Board, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; MBA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Bachelor's, master's, mechanical engineering, University of Michigan; Member, Board of Directors, Transonic Combustion Inc.; Director, EcoMotors Inc.; Executive Chairman & CEO, EcoMotors Inc.; Director & Special adviser, Tongxin International Ltd; Chairman, EP Management Corp.; Director, Envirotest Systems Holding Corp.

DavidNJ

CNG/LNG was a big deal for large trucks, especially tractor-trailers where there is room for the tanks. Payback was just over a year, 5 years ago. Lower diesel prices have change the picture.

The tank's size and shape make it impractical for cars. It can make some of the trunk killer hybrid batteries look efficient.

There are a lot of truck purchases being made it the wake of the Trump tax cuts. Companies are both taking advantage of the more aggressive depreciation (which is offset a bit my the lower tax rate) and expectations of greater demand (the Atlanta Fed is projecting 5.4% GDP growth in Q1).

Vanishing Point

The market for internal combustion engines may be a niche market in thirty plus years, but I still see a strong following for lovers of the feel, smells and rumble of a big motor.
Place your order now.
https://www.classicdriver.com/en/art...after-62-years