[QUOTE]Originally posted by mingster


i wonder where you're getting your stories from.
No you're right, about 8 years ago, China did live war games off the coast of Taiwan including 5 empty missle tests- the buzzer went off in Taipei and its citizens (including one of my friends) had to perform an emergency bomb drill. I think I just got my facts mixed up- and I apologize for that

there aren't enough transports - the whole point of the blockade is because china current does not possess, and will not possess for quite a long time, enough transports (ocean or air) to be able to take Taiwan dominantly. It would take approximately 600 modern landing craft nearly two weeks to transport 20 infantry divisions (750,000 men) to Taiwan - that's the overwhelming numbers needed to take Taiwan (Taiwan has more than a million men on active reserve duty).
Taiwan does not have that many men. Check out http://taiwansecurity.org/Reu/2004/Reuters-110104.htm.
Unless of course, you mean reserves as well- which is about 4 million (80-90 percent of the men fit for military service. The reason I don't consider reserves as a standing army is because most of the time in the event of a military surprise (the most likely strategy for China) you wouldn't be able to locate 80-90% of your male citizens in time

Currently, China has the ability of moving only one or two divisions. Taiwan's best defense is its geography. The island has a rocky coastline, frequent storms, fluctuating tides and mud flats, making an invasion a logistical nightmare. In 1996, when China test-fired missiles and staged naval war games near Taiwan, a typhoon grounded all its aircraft, and its ships promptly retreated to the mainland coastline.

Yes yes and yes. So i guess after the invasion, China can probrably hold Taiwan for a long time against US countermeasures

2 years ago China dropped an empty bomb on Taiwan? I read and watch Taiwanese news everyday here in SoCal (2 international channels, plus CCTV9, plus ZhongTian), why is it that I haven't seen or heard that before? Can you produce the news article on a reputable news source such as CNN, MSNBC, Chinatimes.com, FTVN.com, etc? Have you been smoking too much of the good stuff? Please do post the link, I would like to see it.
When I'm wrong, I'm wrong

As for your comments on heavy artillery , the shortest distance between mainland China and mainland Taiwan is more than 100 miles, I believe China's PLA strategic artillery arm is equipped with MISSILES as opposed to heavy artillery in terms of cannon style artillery. The last time the PLA shot any artillery to Taiwan was more than 50 years ago in their bid for Kinmin Island - now that's a stone's throw away from China's coast.

No, you're right. China's strategy is to use missles- thats what they've been developing, and thats what they'll use. Yes, Taiwan is 100 miles away, the cannon style artillary I'm refering to is on the coast of China. I never said the artillary could reach Taiwan? You must have misunderstood. I said to use them as cover fire so they can stage their Navy. I'm not a general, and I'm certainly not suggesting that I'm well versed in militarty strategy- just throwing out a possible attack plan.

"All they would need would be to utilize their heavy artillary (very heavy artillary which was put in place for the sole purpose of an eventual invasion of Taiwan) as cover fire and basically construct some sort of quasi-bridge with what transports they have, and voilla, they are in Taiwan. " - I apologize for the assertiveness of the tone of that that statement, but I don't think anyone thought of it as the definitive method of attack- just an opinion

I think this coversation is hitting some nerves- tact, or big brother is gonna close it

 

Sen, not a problem man. I considered reserves (note that I wrote "reserve") as part of the standing army - same situation in Korea where male citizens can mobilize quickly. Though I do think for some reason that Koreans make better soldiers than Taiwanese, perhaps it's because of the image of Tae-Kwon Do lessons?

One of my family members was in the central strategic ministry in Taiwan, and the stuff I've heard was pretty funny (and serious) at the same time.

One of the story:
The unofficial estimate is that there is at least 1 division of Chinese troops in Taiwan - these people infiltrated via various means and are now living under cover. Once the order is given, they will organize into smaller groups and storm various strategic targets such as power plants, communications centers, etc. and may even storm the Presidential Palace in downtown Taipei. There is a battalion of heavy equipment reinforced MPs stationed there, but I'm not sure how well they'll do.

Military Police in Taiwan BTW, is a separate branch of the military, kinda like Marine Corp is a separate branch of the military in the US. The MPs has a history of being solely loyal to the president of ROC - when Chiang Kai-Shek was trapped by Generalismo Zhang Xiu-Liang, it was the platoon of MPs that tried (unsuccesfully) to cover the retreat. When Chiang Kai-Shek twisted his ankle an MP carried him on his back. Eventually all the MPs were killed and Chiang was arrested for a time.

Anyway, my family has a long tradition of military service in the ROC, so I have all kinds of stories. But in current state, China doesn't need to attack Taiwan - half of the population wants a peaceful relationship, so all China needs to do is show Taiwan it can be a powerhouse (and it will be) and that it would be in the best interest of Taiwan's people to "rejoin the motherland" in Communist propaganda speak

 

I agree. It is more of the native Taiwanese who want to stir up trouble from what I gather. The nationalists actually want to rejoin. Thats whats so ironic about the whole situation.

My personal history is that my grandparents were all pretty high up in the government in China post-revolution. I was raised on a lot of communist 'propoganda', and I willingly admit it. However, I'd say that propoganda in China is comprable to propoganda in the US, except that the US has differing views so its pretty much up to you what you want to believe.
But wherever you go, there'll be propoganda- in Russia I hear, they say they were the ones who defeated Germany in WWII. And of course in the US, they'll say we saved the world. Whew, anywhoo, I'll tell you a funny/sad story.

I met this girl from Taiwan two summers ago, and I was hitting on her cause she was pretty hot And then we got into a conversation about our origins. Then shit turned political and before I knew it, she was like "I would never date anyone from the Mainland". Then I asked her about her previous boyfriends, and she was like "I dated a half jap/ half korean guy for a year". I was like "What?!? He is the epitome of tolerance in this world (considering the japanese occupied korea and did all sorts of atrocities to them- some would say, far worse than what they did to China (although I'd disagree)." I was like "The koreans hated the japanese, yet he is half jap and half krn. In addition, the japanese killed millions of our people, you'll date him but not a mainland chinese?"
to which she responds: "Millions of your people, not my people".

...

Thats why my whole bit is unity. People just need to get along-
Yea, hated her for it- but she was still ridiculously hot.

 

That point about the MP's is kind of interesting- so they still exist now? Are they as hardcore as they were in Chiang's time?

 

China maybe growing but it has a long way to go, first it has to take on the EU then Japan. The USA still just to way ahead and I think will remain so well after 2020.

I think Taiwan and China relations will change due to economics and nothing else just look at the old Soviet block.

 

Wow

i didn't know that about the MP's either.

Silverknight, your reference to German Tanks is not relevant. How can china get the tanks to Taiwan? float it across? I believe the entire world will see 1 platoon of tanks massing on the borders. China will never be able to send over anything via sea, without peple realizing it. The best bet is for China to fly planes and disable every defense.

Or. Mingster's thing about the secret army China already has in place. That would cause a lot of problems if they have even a small army on Taiwan's soil..

 

When I first read this I swear I thought it said:

"Should Shania Twain declare herself independent from China"

To which my first thought was -- sure why not.

 

eh... dont the mods lock and delete highly political threads?

 

why are the US mad @ how china handles HK??

i live in HK and i dont see there is a problem...yet

 

cuz hk is full of pirates. ^_^